BELMONT PARK - June 08, 2013
Race 11 - 6:36 PM
Belmont S. (Grade
I)
Purse - $1,000,000
Distance - One And One Half Miles
1 – Frac Daddy
2 – Freedom Child
3 – Overanaylze
4 – Giant Finish
5 – Orb
6 – Incognito
7 – Oxbow
8 – Midnight Taboo
9 – Revolutionary
10 – Will Take Charge
11 – Vyjack
12 – Palace Malice
13 – Unlimited Budget
14 – Golden Soul
Let me begin by writing that I really thought #5 Orb was the best three year old
racing this year and that I was confident we would be looking at Triple Crown
Contention this Saturday.
According to his ownership when Orb was asked to go for
the win down the stretch….he just didn’t respond --- so here’s the question for
horse racing fans – was his lack of response a one time thing or is he going to
be asleep again down the stretch when they add more distance in the Belmont
Stakes??
The Morning Line has him as the favorite and if the
Florida and Kentucky Derby Orb shows up I agree that he’s the one who should
win…..but it’s a bit of tough sell when he finished 4th in his last
race – the Preakness.
After finishing 6th in the Kentucky Derby and
not having won a race since January -- #7
Oxbow shocked the racing world (and specifically one gentleman below) by
going practically wire to wire for a Preakness victory!
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| I'm just guessing he didn't bet on Oxbow...... |
I really like Oxbow – and I think if they allow him to
race for another few years he could become a key horse in Stakes Races, he’s
just solid all around talent and kind of a working class colt.
Currently he’s considered the third morning
line favorite – and I like his chances – he’s got a solid post position, and I
think he has a chance to win with the same strategy that put him in the
Preakness Winner’s Circle.The distance is a major question.....but that's a major question for everyone in this race.
The Second Morning Line Favorite is #9 Revolutionary – and he has won three out of his last five races….his two losses were both to Orb.
Revolutionary could be dangerous because he skipped the
Preakness – and he could benefit by having fresher legs than Orb and Oxbow.
Revolutionary has shown a powerful late kick and he may have just enough going
for him this Saturday to finally beat Orb.
Moving back to the top of the order –
#1 Frac Daddy –
16th in the KY Derby and hasn’t won a race since last November. I like
this rascal of a horse but I don’t think he’s got more than a mile and 1/16th
in him.
#2 Freedom Child
– recently defeated #6 Incognito (5th)
in a romp here at Belmont in the Peter Pan Stakes. I think he could challenge
Oxbow for the early lead and then it could come down to which horse is going to
have the distance and is most comfortable at Belmont Park…..at 8/1 he’s a very
interesting prospect that needs a little help.
Peter Pan Stakes:
#3 Overanalyze
– if you believe in horses bouncing (meaning he wins a race than loses a race
than wins the next race) then you’ll love Overanalyze who finished 11th
in the KY Derby – and has won 4 out of 8 lifetime races….never having two
consecutive losses or victories in a row. So he’s due for a win.
He was rusty
having not raced for several months in his Gotham Stakes loss….won with style
in a tough Arkansas Derby field…and then finished poorly in a sloppy Kentucky
Derby – that I’m kind of dismissing because the mud was such a factor. At 12-1….how
can you not put a couple of dollars on a horse that always seems to bounce
back???
#4 Giant Finish
– finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby, I think he’s outclassed here.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah Starring as Jungle Cat in the best selling novel, adaptation for film..... MIDNIGHT TABOO!!! |
#8 Midnight Taboo
– comes in as a 30-1 mystery. He has one victory in three attempts and he
finished 2nd in his last race, an allowance race here in Belmont.
With the quantity and quality of talent in this Belmont Stakes I just think
this is asking too much of this inexperienced horse……at 100-1 he might catch my
attention….although he’s got a great name….sounds like a trashy novel that
everyone would read but nobody would admit too…….either that…..or a Tiki Drink
that everyone would drink and never remember drinking.
#10 Will Take
Charge – Defeated Oxbow in the Rebel
Stakes by a head when he stormed late down the final stretch to steal the
victory……but since then he’s finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby and
7th in the Preakness….where O’ where did that late stormy action go?
If Will
Take Charge can find that lightning in a bottle again, I think he could upset –
but my gut tells me his Rebel Stakes victory was just a unique outing for him.
I think he could crack the top three – but he needs help to win, and he will need to find that great late kick that he only showed once.
#11 Vyjack – This
horse was a New York favorite leading up to the Wood Memorial where he finished
a disappointing 3rd place, followed by a VERY disappointing 18th place in
the KY Derby. I’m tossing out the KY
Derby result – but I don’t think this horse has got the distance for this race….in
fact I think that’s what most people believe. But he may be worth a $2 bet if
he stays at 20/1 odds……he is a very solid contender and if he has found the
distance in his training he’ll fight for it.
#12 Palace Malice –
One victory in seven attempts…..the problem with this horse is that he
could push the early pace and force horses like Oxbow and Freedom Child to get
caught in an early speed trap. He’s the kind of horse that really doesn't have
a chance to win…but his style of racing could very well change the outcome.
The Filly #13
Unlimited Budget – has won four of her last five races, but her only loss
was her most recent race the Kentucky Oaks (the filly version of the Kentucky
Derby) where she finished 3rd.
She is the daughter to Kentucky Derby Champion Street
Sense – which makes her Zenyatta’s niece (or whatever the horse term for that
is?). She very well could have the breeding for this distance – but I don’t know if she’s got the talent?
She’s going off at 8/1 and she has the very dangerous
Rosie Napravnik as her jockey --- could this be a “Girl Power” Belmont – that would
be pretty cool??
Last, but certainly not least is the 2nd place
finisher in the Kentucky Derby #14
Golden Soul. I think the distance
will help Golden Soul – however he never seems to be able to “close the deal”
and win the race when it counts.
Lifetime he has finished 2nd behind Orb (KY Derby),
Revolutionary (4th – Louisiana Derby) and Oxbow (LeComte Stakes).
To be honest I’m rooting a little bit for Unlimited
Budget – filly with a female rider taking the Belmont Stakes (certainly considered
the most grueling of the Triple Crown races) would be pretty awesome!
However that’s not who I’m going to pick to win…..I think
Palace Malice, Oxbow and/or Freedom Child are going to wear out early….too fast
too furious.
And I think the closers will pull out a victory.
Closing Speed likes: Revolutionary, Overanaylze, Orb
If I’m betting $20 here’s who I like
$1 Exacta Box – 3,5,9, 13 = $12
$4 – Freedom Child to win
If the following are still at 20/1 or higher:
$2 – Will Take Charge to win
$2 – Vyjack to win
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