Oaklawn Park
Race 11 - 6:18 PM
Arkansas Derby (Grade I)
Purse - $1,000,000
Distance - One And One Eighth Miles
Surface – Dirt
1 – Rockin Rudy
2 – Classic Empire
3 – Silver Dust
4 – Petrov
5 – Grandpa’s Dream
6 – Lookin at Lee
7 – Sonneteer
8 – Rowdy the Warrior
9 – Untrapped
10 – One Dreamy Dude
11 – Conquest Mo Money
12 - Malagacy
I’m going to start off by writing that I believe there could
be a sizeable upset in the Arkansas Derby – the favorites have a few things
going against them…..enough, I believe, to cost them a trip to the winner’s circle.
And some of these long shots only need a little edge to
steal a big race – and they may get it here at Oaklawn.
The Arkansas Derby serves as a rematch for several of
these horses who last raced in the Rebel Stakes 28 days ago.
#12 Malagacy earned a commanding victory over #7
Sonneteer (2nd), #9 Untrapped (3rd), #4 Petrov (4th),
#3 Silver Dust (5th) and #6 Lookin at Lee (6th).
See Video:
As the announcer so aptly stated there were three noses on the
wire for 2nd place – and I believe one of these three horses could
be the one to steal a victory here in the Arkansas Derby.
Before I “show my work” on the upset – here’s a quick
briefing on the field.
#1 Rockin Rudy – 1 victory in 3 career starts , I think
he’ll be overwhelmed by the talent here. If he somehow breaks from the gate
well and grabs the rail and sets the early pace….he could position himself for a top three
spot…..but I just don’t think it’s going to happen.
#2 Classic Empire – He’s the Favorite in this race -
currently going off at 8/5. This son of Pioneer of the Nile (half-brother to
Grand Slam Champion American Pharoah) enters
this race as the Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion , BUT most recently 3rd
place finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes.
An additional issue I see for this horse is that he last
ran 70 days ago – and this race is set up to be a kind of Boom or Bust for
Classic Empire. He’s got a great post, but I’m concerned he either peaked too
soon (his 2 year old season) or that he’ll have too much rust coming into this
one…..or both!
From a bettors standpoint I think you either bet against
him heavy……or you sit on your hands…i.e. not bet at all.
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| Or, instead of sitting your hands, you could hold a giant rabbit Happy Easter everyone. |
#3 Silver Dust (1 win in 4 attempts) and #6 Lookin at Lee
(2 Wins in 8 attempts) – neither have shown me enough to win in this one.
#4 Petrov – 1 win in 5 attempts – I thought he had a very
tough trip in his 4th place finish…..he got bunched up in traffic
coming out of the final turn and it seemingly took forever for him to find a
gap to run through……I love his starting spot…..but I HATE that he only has one
victory. 12/1 odds – worth a look!
#5 Grandpa’s Dream – 1 win in 4 races – 30/1 odds – in a
race with a possible upset he may be worth a $2 bet…..but I think you and
Grandpa will both be dreaming at that point.
#7 Sonneteer – He REALLY caught my attention with his 2nd
place finish in the Rebel Stakes and I was ready to GUARENTEE a big finish from
this horse……I mean a BIG GUAAAAAA-----ROOOONNN---TEEEEE this horse was going to
do something special here in the Arkansas Derby…..and then I reviewed his full
history.
0 wins in 9 Races…….I mean that ZERO feels REALLY PUNCTUATED!
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| Like REALLY ZERO |
I do think there’s an upset brewing here…..and 15/1 odds
looks mighty nice…..but ZERO Wins…Zero.....I could be mumbling that all during the race.
#8 Rowdy the Warrior – he’s going off at 30/1 and has 1
victory in 9 races. Which of course makes it even more difficult to forget that
ZERO sitting with Sonneteer.....I mean even Rowdy the Warrior a horse clearly with some kind of complex could put together 1 win.
Likely you’ll see Rowdy the Warrior begin at the back of
the pack….and finish there as well.
#9 Untrapped – 1 win in 5 attempts – this horse is very
good at finishing 2nd or 3rd --- he could be the upset
contender here but I’m not loving his starting spot.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah refers to himself as One Dreamy Dude on his dating profile - at JC Date Jungle Cats Date |
#10 – One Dreamy Dude – 0 Wins in 6 Attempts --- I think
he’s basically a part of the field so that I have material for Strangely
Sensitive Cheetah.
#11 Conquest Mo Money – 3 wins out of 4 attempts – and he
finished 2nd in the Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby he was
forced to go far wide in the first turn and it really cost him ground he couldn’t
make up --- he’s sitting at 15/1 and he very well could pose as an upset
threat!
#12 Malagacy – Undefeated in 3 lifetime races – he’s
definitely the horse to beat in this one, and in my opinion should still be
considered the favorite in this race over Classic Empire.
So here is my breakdown of how I see this race going –
Malagacy “could” and likely will push to be a part of the early lead (i.e. the Pace) –
Conquest Mo Money will do EVERYTHING in his power to make sure to keep Malagacy
on his outside shoulder and not give Malagacy the opportunity to get an inside
position…..this could be KEY.
If Malagacy goes for the rail and Conquest Mo Money
succeeds in keeping him from getting it – both of these horses could come out
of the final turn exhausted – leaving someone inside -- or someone with a reserve an opportunity.
That someone very well could be Classic Empire – who will
have a shorter trip on the rail into the first turn and could (and should)
position himself to have the inside track coming out of the final turn
*IF both
Malagacy and Conquest Mo Money are sucking wind --- he could breeze the final
furlongs and take a solid victory….that is….unless he comes out flat, or he’s
not up for the distance?!?!
IF (and this is a solid IF) Conquest Mo Money presents issues for Malagacy and both of them are wiped out coming out of the final turn
AND Classic Empire comes out rusty – this makes way for a sizeable upset.
I SO BADLY want to go with Sonneteer but WHO picks a
horse to win a HUGE Kentucky Derby Prep that has Zero Wins…….
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| This is what betting on Sonneteer feels like..... |
I'm going with Petrov for the win....but I think there are a number of possible upsets here -- if you're betting tomorrow -- Be Brave!
Closing Speed likes: Petrov / Malagacy / Classic Empire
If I’m betting $30 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box 4/2/11/12
$6 Win Bet #7
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