Preakness Stakes 2022

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 – 7:01 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Simplification
2 – Creative Minister                                                   
3 – Fenwick
4 – Secret Oath                               
5 – Early Voting
6 – Happy Jack                                 
7 – Armagnac
8 – Epicenter
9 – Skippylonstocking

Leave it to Horse Racing to have a remarkable story:

Rich Strike an 80-1 longshot…..entering one of the biggest races in the world as an (AE, also eligible) --- placed in the furthest gate spot imaginable (#21)…..and no one gave this horse a second glance…..Then he’s given the perfect guidance by rider Sonny Leon in a dramatic come from behind (really out of nowhere) Kentucky Derby victory!!

And in what seems like hours the story unravels into --- Ownership decides to bow out of the Triple Crown…they believe it's good for the Rich Strike --  a “business” decision.

And Sonny Leon has been suspended from racing for four days due to reckless racing BEFORE the Kentucky Derby.   

The “Business” decision not to race in the Preakness has me asking:

Are Ownerships becoming less interested in the current format of the Triple Crown because they’re concerned with running a horse 3 times in close to 5 weeks?  Personally I agree.

For years I’ve been saying Horse Racing needs to embrace change and give the sport a chance to flourish.....but sadly this sport wants to cling to it's traditions. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
believes there should be a 
Triple Tiara available if
Secret Oath wins

However, perhaps Ownership is concerned that a shorter distance (the Preakness) may give them less chance to win and hurt this Horse’s Value?  It's possible. 

From a money stand point - Before the Kentucky Derby victory Rich Strike had earned $ 72,500…..even a 4^th place finish in the Preakness would give him $90,000 more.

Whatever the reason – come Saturday, the Triple Crown bid will be over……however “should” it be?? 

Personally I believe if Secret Oath, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, wins the Preakness the Triple Crown should still be available to her! But then again
Secret Oath is my girl!

Let’s begin my Preakness rant with #8 Epicenter – as I mentioned in my Kentucky Derby write up many believed that Epicenter was the best three year old in the country – He and Joel Rosario ran a blazing early pace in the KY Derby and hoped to outlast the pack – but Rich Strike weaved through traffic for an improbable victory.

Epicenter has finished 1^st in 4 out his last 6 races and 2^nd in the other two. He and Rosario are the 6-5 favorites.

In my opinion, Winning the Kentucky Derby is about the skill to navigating the huge field and luck, in the Belmont it’s about handling the Endurance……and in the Preakness it’s usually just about being the best horse…..Epicenter is considered the best by many and these odds seem about right.

#1 Simplification – Finished 4^th in the Kentucky Derby and with Rich Strike (1^st) and Zandon (3^rd) out of the picture, one would imagine this horse has a shot to move up at least two spaces and finish in the second spot. With the exception of the Kentucky Derby this horse has “hit the board” (Finishing First through 3^rd) – 6 out of 7 times lifetime….and his 5^th place finish was in Oct. 2021.

There has been a change of Jockey to John Velazquez for this race. Velazquez has never raced with Simplification……will the change be for the better or worse?

#2 Creative Minister – Three lifetime races (2 Wins and a Place) – Good News / Bad News with this horse is that he hasn’t raced against Stakes Caliber horses – however he is VERY dangerous.

Now all I can imagine is
Creative Minister bouncing down the
track to this beat!

He will look to grab the rail for most of the race and then pour on the closing speed at the end. It will be interesting to see if they try to jump out in front of Simplification OR slide behind him. At 10-1 don’t let him slip off your radar.

**Odd side note – this horse looks like he “HOPS” more than most horses – he has a bit of a bounce to his stride.

#3 Fenwick – after watching an 80-1 horse clobber my choices for the Kentucky Derby I’m gun shy to say you should drop this horse…..but Fenwick has had multiple Trainer swaps and now has a new jockey. He’s going off at 50-1…..and has 1 victory in 6 races.

#4 Secret Oath – (The Filly) This is Secret Oath’s story – She won 4 out of 6 races…she won 3 straight races before entering the Arkansas Derby against the Colts. Secret Oath perhaps stayed too far off the early lead in the Arkansas Derby and finished 3^rd.

Had she won the Arkansas Derby, she likely would have raced in the Kentucky Derby…..however they decided to run her in the Kentucky Oaks and she won. (The Kentucky Oaks is the Filly version of the Derby).

I really like her in this race – and I believe she should be the 2^nd favorite.

However the morning line has #5 Early Voting as the 2^nd favorite. Early Voting finished 2^nd in a nail biter in the Wood Memorial in April. Early Voting enters this race with fresh legs compared to the rest of these horses…..and he also may be in contention to be the early leader.

Early Voting was caught late by Mo Donegal in the Wood Memorial – and there are several solid late closers in this race as well….and this is a longer race than the Wood Memorial.  Could fresh legs be the difference?

#6 Happy Jack – Finished 14^th in the Kentucky Derby. Happy Jack gets a new jockey Tyler Gaffalione on board…..and I think Happy Jack has a shot at 4^th here…..but he’s just Happy that the field has been cut in more than half.

I'm a very HAPPY JACK
to have won my Tawny Port bet
in the KY Derby!!
Should I bet a bottle of Armagnac??
An average bottle is about $80

#7 Armagnac – So here’s a strange betting anomaly --- Armagnac has a morning line of 12-1 and Happy Jack is going off at 30-1.  Happy Jack finished ahead of this horse in the last two times they raced.

Armagnac also has a new rider – Irad Ortiz…..I seriously don’t know why you’d take this horse at 12-1 over Happy Jack at 30-1??

I mean unless you really love Brandy and prefer a “Sad” Jack??

 #9 Skippylongstocking – He’s a workhorse – he has 9 career races and has finished on the board in 5 of them. Solid all around horse – and he also has fresher legs having not raced since April – I would be surprised if this horse finishes better than 3^rd.

Here’s how I see the race –

Interesting fight for the rail between Simplification and Creative Minister – I think Creative Minister will plan to sit back.

I look for Early Voting to take the early lead – and Epicenter, Secret Oath and Simplification to stay close.

If Early Voting has fresh legs and has found the distance, him being the 2^nd favorite may make sense.

As the round the final turn the question will be are Epicenter, Secret Oath, Simplification and/or Creative Minister gassed from only having two weeks off? It’s very likely one of them will be.

 I think Epicenter is the best horse in this field – but I’m rooting for Secret Oath to find an inside path and finish in the Winners Circle – and I’m looking for either Simplification or Creative Minister to Place while Epicenter finishes third.

 Closing Speed likes: Secret Oath, Epicenter, Creative Minister

But who I like and how I’d bet are slightly different……

$5 Win - #2
$5 Win - #1……(unless this horse slips to 4-1 or less paying odds)

$1 Box Trifecta – 1,2,4,8 = $24
$1 Box Exacta – 1,2,4,8 = #12