Churchill Downs –
May 7th, 2022
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt
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1 – Mo Donegal 2 – Happy Jack 3 – Epicenter 4 – Summer Is Tomorrow 5 – Smile Happy 6 – Messier 7 – Crown Pride 8 – Charge It 9 – Tiz the Bomb 10 – Zandon |
11 – Pioneer of Medina 12 – Taiba 13 – Simplification 14 – Barber Road 15 – White Abarrio 16 – Cyberknife 17 – Classic Causeway 18 – Tawny Port 19 – Zozos 20 – Ethereal Road |
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| What would history tell us?? Please ignore his other big question: "Where are all the Low women at?" |
As I look at the field of the 2022 Kentucky Derby - I find myself thinking....what does history tell me?? And every time I write that phrase I think it would help if we imagine Ben Franklin asking....What is history telling us?? **Also Ken Burns just dropped his Ben Franklin Documentary and that is ALWAYS worth a mention!
#1 Mo Donegal – Finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial – however this post position will be very difficult for him to overcome. History tells us that this horse get swallowed up early by the field and remains boxed in until it’s far too late.
#2 Happy Jack – Finished 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby, but will likely get swallowed up by the field as well.
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| Ah...the Mid 90's -- when we were about to get Spice Girled. |
His post isn’t great – and "History tells us" that the Louisiana Derby Winners have only produced two Kentucky Derby Winners –
Black Gold in 1924 and Grindstone in 1996.
The morning odds have him as the second favorite – and if he gets out of the gate well, he could be impossible to catch……but you have to wonder if this horse has seen enough “real” competition.
Here's a look at the Louisiana Derby (with Zozos and Pioneer of Medina)
#4 Summer is Tomorrow – finished 2nd behind #7 Crown Pride – in the UAE Derby -- I’ll be the first one to say I used to get excited to see UAE Derby contenders enter the KY Derby – but since 2000 – 5th is the best a UAE Derby contender has finished.
Summer is Tomorrow has early speed and may push Epicenter. But he’ll fade.
Crown Pride can close – but the UAE Winners have never helped me out and in fact, most often they come out flat….finishing in the bottom 4th.
**History tells me we can knock out these two horses.
#5 Smile Happy - has finished 2 behind both #10 Zandon and #3 Epicenter in his last two consecutive races. Solid early speed, he has the same Jockey (Corey Lanerie) that he’s had for the last 3 races and he’s got a solid post position. One other thought – his last victory was at Churchill Downs.
Morning odds have him at a tempting 20-1 odds – but the question is his ability to make this distance.
#6 Messier – Going into the Santa Anita Derby, many people (including myself) thought Messier would exit that race the victor AND the Kentucky Derby favorite – and it would certainly help that he has Jockey John Velazquez on board who has won 3 out of the last 11 Kentucky Derby’s --- the number would be 4 out of 11 if Medina Spirit would have retained last year’s victory (but that’s another story).
**Instead Messier faded in the Santa Anita Derby and #12 Taiba passed him like he was standing still.
He has a great post – a fantastic jockey – but has Placed twice out of his last three races. Another 2nd place finish is where I see him.
#8 Charge It – finished 2nd behind #15 White Abarrio in the Florida Derby – and could have easily taken the win….but due to some late wobbling from the leader and some indecision he failed to finish strongly.
I think Charge It – has a LOT of potential especially at 20-1.
What I don’t love is he only has three races – and 1 Win in his lifetime.
I think he could position himself at the top of the pack and finish with strength – but I think he’ll need some luck to pull out a victory here.
#9 Tiz the Bomb – 5 wins in 8 races – win victories in his last two races. However he finished 6th in February in the Holy Bull behind White Abarrio, Simplification and Mo Donegal – Very solid horse, but hasn’t been competitive against some of these other horses.
#10 Zandon – I did a double take when I saw that Zandon was the morning line favorite – having won 2 out 4 races lifetime. His “big” race is his most recent race (and victory) the Blue Grass Stakes, which I will tell you I usually “throw out” that race, because it’s just a funky indicator.
In short - History tells us the Blue Grass Stakes aren't a great Prep Indicator.
His race before that he finished 3rd behind Epicenter and Smile Happy in Louisiana.
And he’s the Favorite?? **My guess is come Saturday morning he'll be the 2nd favorite.
His Jockey Flavien Prat is the real deal – and won the 2019 Kentucky Derby – (although technically he finished 2nd and won due to a DQ….it’s been a rough three years).
Zandon – has a sweet post position…..but I’m not a believer. I have this horse at say 10-1…..maybe 8-1 with this post??
Here's a look at the Blue Grass Stakes:with Smile Happy:
#11 Pioneer of Medina – has a tendency of finishing in the money, but only has two wins in six attempts and those wins were against lesser talent in Dec. 2021 and January of this year.
#12 Taiba – This horse only has two races under his belt --- and both of them were victories, including the Santa Anita Derby. He has 2018 Kentucky Derby winner Mike “Money” Smith on board and he’s got a great Post!
The two strikes against this horse are:
He was trained by Bob Baffert and has been handed to Tim Yakteen AND he only has two races. I have a "history" of a West Coast Bias...however (recently I've had a history of calling the Winner in the KY Derby, even though two of them were DQ'd.....yes I'm bitter!).
To me this horse should be in the discussion of being a favorite.
**Instead he’s sitting at 12-1.
Here's a look at the Santa Anita Derby with Messier and Happy Jack
#13 Simplification – Out of 7 lifetime races this horse has been in the money 6 times…..and out of that 6 he’s won 3 times. I really like this horse and he should be considered a horse to round out your Trifecta bets…..but when he’s faced top notch talent he hasn’t been able to pull off a victory.
#14 Barber Road – In 8 lifetime races, Barber Road has Placed (finished 2nd) 4 times. This horse deserves to be in the Derby, but unless he finds a new stride on Saturday he’ll be lucky to be in the middle of the pack.
#15 White Abarrio – Winner of the Florida Derby – and he has 4 victories in 5 attempts. …and his morning line odds are??? 10-1….seriously I don’t get it this year.
White Abarrio needed a little bit of swerving to stop Charge It from taking the Fla. Derby victory – but still I trust the Florida Derby as a Prep more than I trust the Bluegrass Stakes....because, you know, history tells me it's a better indicator.
Florida Derby with: Charge It and Simplification
#16 Cyberknife – Winner of the Arkansas Derby – 3 Victories in 6 attempts, but perhaps most importantly 2 straight victories leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
He did finish 6th in the Lecomte Stakes in January against Call Me Midnight and Epicenter – but that was in January.
He has the 2021 Kentucky Derby Winning Jockey Florent Geroux (who won because Medina Spirt was later DQ).
Cyberknife has a morning line of 20-1…….I REALLY don’t understand this morning line - my guess is Cyberknife is 8-1, or 6-1 at the bell.
Arkansas Derby with Barber Road (and Kentucky Oaks competitor Secret Oath....Secret Oath is my GIRL!)
#17 Classic Causeway – After back to back wins in Tampa – Classic Causeway finished 11th in the Florida Derby, and his “usual” jockeys Irad Ortiz and Jose Ortiz chose to ride different horses.
I think he’ll go for the early lead and fade before they hit the last turn.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah enjoys pairing a Tawny Port with Kudu and a medley of Red Cabbage, Marrows and Yellow Peppers |
A fun side bet with a friend is choosing whether this horse will finish in the top 11 – or 12 thru 20. Loser buys a Tawny Port for the table!
#19 Zozos – Great Early speed and finished just behind Epicenter in the Louisiana Derby, which is the only race out of 3 that he didn’t win. Very tough post for this horse.
I think he makes an early dash for it – if he can make it to the lead and to the rail by the beginning of the first turn, he’s got an outside shot….but that’s a TON to ask.
I think he runs wide and fades early.
#20 Ethereal Road – 1 win in 7 races – doesn’t have the speed to compete early – will likely go flat when asked to go 9 wide in the final turn.
He would need to position himself perfectly and find the perfect gap. Needs a LOT of help. Too much to ask.
Here’s how I see the race playing out –
***If Epicenter can break out of the gate well and make the first turn close to the lead and on the rail, this race could be over once he hits the first turn – if he’s able to run his race, I don’t know if anyone will be able to catch him!
HOWEVER there is a risk of him getting boxed IN before the first turn and there’s also a risk of him rushing to the lead and not having enough stamina to finish strongly.
Smile Happy could be “THE” horse that makes the early move to box Epicenter in – especially if Smile Happy breaks out of the gate best.
Messier has a much better opportunity to own the early lead and dictate his own ride. But he faded HARD in the Santa Anita? His path to victory may be taking a strong enough early lead and hoping that the traffic is too thick behind him to catch him in the final furlongs – but I don’t think his luck holds out here.
Charge It is in an excellent position to sit just off of Messier’s shoulders and surpass him late – this horse has EVERYTHING going for him for a 20/1.
Zandon – I think they pull back on Zandon and position him late – He’ll run towards the top / middle of the pack and make his move late. BUT I think Zandon goes wide and flat – and fails to make a serious run.
Taiba, White Abarrio and Cyberknife – Santa Anita Derby Winner, Florida Derby Winner and the Arkansas Derby winner – will melt into the pack carefully going into the first turn.
I think Taiba will push to be further up than White Abarrio and Cyberknife –
The BIG question is, which one of these horses will panic and rush the first mile and leave them gassed in the end --- and which one of these horses may get lost behind a WALL of horses and have no gap to break free.
In the end I think Epicenter fails to take the early lead at the rail – Messier leads the pack early but is drained in the final furlongs – Charge it is “right there” and the crowd goes bezerk – but it’s Cyberknife and Taiba making the late charges – and Taiba takes the victory!
Closing Speed likes: Taiba, Charge It and Cyberknife
If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box (with favorites): 3,10,12,16 = $24
$1 Trifecta Box (The Bold call): 6,8,12,16 = $24
$1 Exacta Box: 3, 6,8,12,16 = $20
Longshots:
$5 Win/Place #12 Taiba or #16 Cyberknife, which ever offers the best odds!! = $10
$2 Across the Board - #8 – Charge It = $6
$2 Across the Board #12 – Taiba = $6
$2 Across the Board #16 – Cyberknife = $6
Now if everyone will excuse me I'm going to grab some popcorn and watch the movie "kind of" based on the 1924 Louisiana and Kentucky Derby Winner Black Gold! No seriously I think this movie is "kind" of based on this horse!
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