Belmont Stakes 2026

Saratoga  – June 6th, 2026
Race 13 - 7:04 PM (EST)
Belmont Stakes
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt

#1 Vitruvian Man
#2 Powershift
#3 Chief Wallabee
#4 Renegade
#5 Ottinho
#6 Growth Equity
#7 Commandment
#8 Emerging Market
#9 Golden Tempo

When last we saw #1 Vitruvian Man - 

Leonardo Di Vinci's 15th century
Jim Morrison...also....the studio was
kinda cold that day. 

Nope...not that one - I mean the Horse #1 Vitravian Man - he was finishing 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby with Antonio Fresu aboard. This horse often finds a way to hit the boards finishing Top 3 in his last 4 outings...however he's only won 1 race in 6 lifetime Ownership and Trainer Doug O'Neil may think he can close well and have a shot at this distance - personally I just don't think he'll be able to compete in this very talented field - the morning line has him at 30-1....I agree.

#2 Powershift - Luis Saez will be aboard for the first time on this 12-1 morning line horse. This horse is coming off of a non-stakes victory and hasn't raced much compared to the rest of the field with 3 races total - (1 Win / 1 Place) and his only stakes outing saw him finish 6th. I think Vitravian Man has a better shot than Powershift??

#3 Chief Wallabee – I wrote that this horse should be considered for Exotics in the Kentucky Derby and he finished a very respectable 4th. This 3-1 horse has "Kind of" hit the cycle in racing - as he has finished 1st / 2nd / 3rd and 4th in Four Races. Once again I like this horse for at best a 2nd place finish but more likely a 4th place finish. There are three superior horses that have beaten him before and they'll be racing against him Saturday. 

Speaking of superior horses - 

#4 Renegade – I wrote the following for the Kentucky Derby:
(he’s my favorite this year with the absolute worst spot in the race #1 post position)

Even with the absolute WORST post position you can be dealt in the Kentucky Derby this horse finished 2nd, which is a minor miracle in and of itself -- in his lifetime 6 races he's finished top 3 in ALL of them. He's also one of only two horses who has experience here at Saratoga - He's the favorite (2-1) for all of the right reasons.  

They're calling it the Renegade Reprisal - the Saratoga Showdown
The Battle at the Belmont - The Fray for the HAY!!
Okay....no one is calling it any of these.... 

#5 Ottinho – Currently set at 20-1 -- Rider Dylan Davis will be aboard for the first time - Jockey Flavien Prat has had some success with this horse having ridden him 3 out of 4 lifetime races - in those races Ottinho finished 1st / 2nd and 3rd -- and one more 3rd to his resume. It's when I don't give much thought to a horse that I get into trouble.....but this horse strikes me as just happy to be here.

#6 Growth Equity – Finished 2nd here in Saratoga last July (2025) - and has mainly been a New York Runner - with two recent races at Aqueduct. Lifetime he has 4 races with 2 wins and 2 places - but he hasn't faced this kind of talent - at 12-1 he's got my attention - definitely a Trifecta / Superfecta consideration.

#7 Commandment – Notes from my Kentucky Derby write-up:

The (2^nd) morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.

Should have listened to my own notes - as the Jockey switch up may have had something to do with his lackluster results....a 7th place finish. Rider John Velazquez will be on board for HIS first time - as this horse has seen a total of 5 different Jockeys in 7 races.....He had FOUR straight wins before the Kentucky Derby - maybe the size of the field threw him off....maybe it was an off day - but even though Velazquez is a great jockey....I think the lack of consistency is reason enough to be careful here.

However Commandment still finished better than the horse Flavien Prat chose to ride:

#8 Emerging Market – Notes from my Kentucky Derby write up:

This horse only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be “harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19 Golden Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey Flavien Pratt – according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a deal in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this horse over #6 Commandment. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wants you to know that the
Author of this blog
LOVES a good Po Boy! 

I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times.  15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee me getting let down again here.

And I WAS a little let down....I had hoped for Gumbo....but instead just got a half a Po'Boy! 

My speculation is that Flavien Prat somehow picked the wrong horse to ride in these races - as Commandment finished better in the Kentucky Derby than Emerging Market who finished 10th. 

 

Granted I have quite a bit of experience in choosing the wrong horses myself. 

#19 Golden Tempo –  Notes from my Kentucky Derby write up:

Had two early victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently finished 3^rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an edge with longer distance and being further outside.

Golden Tempo hadn't shown me much in his four races in Louisiana - giving us two 3rd place finishes in two Stakes Prep races --- finishing behind Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby....so with Golden Tempo I had expected day old Red Beans and Rice -- but instead was served up Antoine's Cherry's Jubilee and Cafe Brulot Diabolique....tableside!

Clearly I need to visit New Orleans again soon....

What can I tell you?? After watching the Kentucky Derby a few times - Golden Tempo makes the most of a difficult start - falls back more than 17 lengths --- waits for the right time to make a move and then overtakes Renegade in the final strides - Golden Tempo showed a lot of poise in the Kentucky Derby and certainly enough stamina to be considered a favorite here at the Belmont --- which this year will be at the same distance as the Kentucky Derby.

Jose Ortiz will be aboard once again - as he has been for all of Golden Tempo's races. 

And yet Golden Tempo is currently at 9/2 odds -- which means the Morning Line favors Chief Wallabee and Renegade more. 

I see NOTHING preventing Golden Tempo from running a very similar race to the Kentucky Derby.

As I see the Belmont Stakes it all comes down to a few questions -

Did Golden Tempo "arrive" as the best 3 year old in the country or just have 1 amazing day in Kentucky?

Did Emerging Market just have an off day in Kentucky and can defeat Golden Tempo once again?

Is Renegade really the best 3 year old horse in the country - but couldn't get past the terrible post position in Kentucky?

Why is Chief Wallabee second morning line favorite after finishing 4th behind Golden Tempo and having twice finished behind Commandment?

And finally can Commandment rebound in the Belmont with yet another new Jockey??

Closing Speed likes: Renegade / Golden Tempo / Emerging Market

In this case though - I think this is a good race to shake up your betting and take advantage of some interesting odds.

Trifecta Box: 4 / 9 / 7 / 8 = $24
Exacta Box: 4/9 w 3/6/7/8 = $8

If Growth Equity / Commandment and Emerging Market offer some great odds - I would pair them with Golden Tempo and Renegade --usually in a race like this the two favorites get "Split".

 

 

 

Kentucky Derby 2026

  

Churchill Downs  – May 2nd, 2026
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $5,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt

#1 Renegade
#2 Albus
#3 Intrepido
#4 Litmus Test
#5 Right To Party
#6 Commandment
#7 Danon Bourbon
#8 So Happy
#9 The Puma
#10 Wonder Dean (JPN)
#11 Incredibolt
#12 Chief Wallabee
#13 Silent Tactic
#14 Potente
#15 Emerging Market
#16 Pavlovian
# 17 Six Speed
#18 Further Ado
#19 Golden Tempo
#20  Fulleffort
Sub: Great White
Sub: Ocelli

“The jig is up, the news is out, They finally found me, The renegade who had it made, Retrieved for a bounty” – Styx – Renegade.

The last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post was 40 years ago (1986) with Ferdinand. Which is one reason I found it “interesting” that #1 Renegade was the morning line favorite at 4-1 odds.

#1 Renegade – Has won 3 out of 4 lifetime races including a dominant victory at the Arkansas Derby. His Trainer Todd Pletcher has two KY Derby victories and Irad Ortiz is one of the best riders in the US. However he’ll VERY LIKELY be buried or pinned in the first quarter of this race and then have to maneuver past a wall of horses to reach the finish line first – he’s my favorite this year with the absolute worst spot in the race.

#2 Albus – Winner of his last two races including the Wood Memorial. While I like this horse quite a bit his rider chose to stick with #11 Incredibolt – so he’ll have a new jockey and not a great starting spot.

#3 Intrepido – Hasn’t won a race since October 2025 – he’s a very solid horse and Hector Berrios has been aboard for the last 5 rides – he finished 4^th in the Santa Anita Derby and his 50-1 odds are about right.

#4 Litmus Test – Hasn’t won since December 2025, and will have Garcia aboard for the first time. He’s a Bob Baffert trained horse – and Baffert has 6 total KY Derbies to his name – but 50-1 also seems right for this horse as well.

#5 Right to Party – Finished 2^nd in the Wood Memorial behind Albus – but hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since January 2026. Trainer Kenneth McPeek won the KY Derby in 2024 and Jockey Elliott has been on board for three previous races – so his Posse is in Effect, and as much as I’d like to Fight for the Right to Party, unless they have Paul Revere on board or a New Style – I see this as a Slow Ride – in fact Slow and Low chance of hitting the money here – his Kentucky Racing License is really just a License to Ill.

Also from 1986....and YES I included as many song titles
as I could think of on this album for Right to Party! 

 #6 Commandment – The (2^nd) morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.

#7 Danon Bourbon – Is a Kentucky Bred horse who has three dominant wins in three races….that have all been in Japan. Japan is making great strides in Horse Racing – and this horse will have the same rider (Nishimura) as he’s had his whole career – however in my experience changing Countries, Tracks and even running in a different direction (they run clock-wise in Japan) can be a difficult ask for a horse their first time out. 20-1 is an interesting price – and “someday” a foreign horse is going to win this race….I just don’t think it’s this one.

#8 So Happy – Santa Anita Derby winner who has 3 lifetime victories in 4 races – has Big Money Mike Smith on board for the fifth straight time. Mike Smith has two KY Derby wins and he has this horse in a great spot and with current odds at 15-1….has my attention. Especially because this horse can run at the top of pack early and still close.

#9 The Puma – One victory (Tampa Bay Derby) in Four Races – but has been competitive. In the other three races he finished 2^nd behind Commandment, 3^rd behind Renegade, 2^nd behind Chief Wallabee. His Jockey and Trainer put together a Kentucky Derby Victory in 2023 with Mage from the 8^th spot. With a little luck it’s possible he makes the top 3. 

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
has only a long, appreciative,
and supportive stare to offer
The Puma 

#10 Wonder Dean (JPN) – recently defeated #17 Six Speed – in the UAE Derby. Similar issue to Danon Bourbon – horses with UAE Derby victories just haven’t “won”. Solid post position – good horse – could surprise….and at 30-1 has my attention….but history says save your money.

#11 Incredibolt – At 20-1 this horse is a very interesting prospect to me. He has had Torres aboard his entire career – and has 3 victories in 5 races. His last race was a beautiful ride in the Virginia Derby in mid-March – he navigated traffic like a seasoned pro and closed well. His other two victories were here at Churchhill Downs. He’s got a great post position – and has shown to have the kind of kick and poise to do well here in the Kentucky Derby.

Here’s the bad news – His Jockey Torres has never raced in the Kentucky Derby – and his Trainer Riley Mott has never won one – although his Father Trainer Bill Mott has won two Kentucky Derbies. Also the Virginia Derby (on Dirt) is only in it’s second year – and it’s difficult to judge how that race translates to this one. American Promise won the Virginia Derby in 2025 and finished 16^th here at the Kentucky Derby.

#12 Chief Wallabee – Has 1 victory in 3 races – defeated twice by #6 Commandment in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Trainer Bill Mott and Jockey Junior Alvarado teamed up to visit the Winner’s Circle on Sovereignty last year here at the Kentucky Derby – so this horse has a great team and a good post position – will need some luck to win outright….but should be considered for Exotics.

#13 Silent Tactic – Scratched

#14 Potente – Has two victories in three lifetime races – and he was the Favorite going into the Santa Anita Derby only to finish behind #8 So Happy. JJ Hernandez has been aboard his last two races and Bob Baffert obviously knows how to win in Kentucky. He’s got a solid post position – and with only three races under his belt – he could be poised to show a little more here in his fourth lifetime race. He’s a dangerous 20-1.

#15 Emerging Market – This horse only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be “harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19 Golden Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey Flavien Pratt – according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a deal in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this horse over #6 Commandment.

I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times.  15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee me getting let down again here.

What Emerging Market's Odds looks like to my belly!

#16 Pavlovian – This is a well seasoned horse – 10 Lifetime races – having been in the money 7 out of 10. Won the Sunland Derby in Feb. 2026 / finished behind Emerging Market in Louisiana in March. His rider Maldonado has been aboard for the last two rides. He usually does well at the top of the pack early – so this may not be a good spot for him.

#17 Six Speed – Has 3 victories in 5 Races – however all of his races are overseas. Finished behind Wonder Dean in the UAE Derby. Counting him out for the same reasons as the other two horses from overseas.

#18 Further Ado – Jockey Velazquez has three recent Kentucky Derby Victories (2020, 2017, and 2011). Along with Brad Cox who has a 2021 Kentucky Derby win – this horse has 3 victories in 6 lifetime races – but has won 3 out of the last 4 – including the Blue Grass Stakes.

Morning Line has him at 6-1 – which would make him the 2^nd favorite in his race along with Commandment. Similar to Commandment – this will be Velazquez first race with Further Ado.

But I’ve never been a fan of the Blue Grass Stakes as a Prep Race – the last horse to win both the Blue Grass Stakes AND the Kentucky Derby was Strike the Gold in 1991.

And (for good or bad) that’s the main reason I don’t like Further Ado to win here.

#19 Golden Tempo – Had two early victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently finished 3^rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an edge with longer distance and being further outside.

#20 Fulleffort – Scratched

#21 Great White – Has two victories in four races – his last outing he finished 5^th in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has had Jockey Achard for all four races.

#22 Ocelli – Has never won a race in 6 outings…..a victory in the Kentucky Derby would “break” his Maiden. Just a bit of history only 3 horses have broken their maiden in the Kentucky Derby.

1884 – Buchanan (you read that right 1884….BEFORE the Dakota’s were US States).
1933 – Broker’s Tip (When you couldn’t legally celebrate with a Cocktail – because it was the last year of Prohibition. 

And finally 1919 – Sir Barton – the first Triple Crown Winner….hey maybe there is hope??

Here’s how I see the race unfolding:

#1 Renegade – Will run the risk of getting pinned or bottled up early OR give the field a half second start and begin to work the traffic from the back at the beginning of the race --- it’s an impossible choice. My guess is he’ll make a valiant run at the end – but unless he’s blessed with luck I don’t see him finishing better than 4^th. 

I think #4 Litmus Test will attempt to take command of the rail – and may even appear to be in contention for most of the race – but look for him to fade as they come into the final turn.

#6 Commandment – He’ll have the best position early on and certainly has enough kick to win. I think it’s his race to lose – the question is: How well Saez and he will work together.

#8 So Happy – could be the wildcard in this race. He “could” push the early tempo in an attempt to control the lead – which could dictate Commandment’s choices. I trust Mike Smith and his experience with this horse could be a deciding factor – So Happy could be in an early stalking spot close enough to the inside to not be gassed at the end – DANGEROUS 15-1 here.

#9 The Puma, #11 Incredibolt, #12 Chief Wallabee, #14 Potente, #15 Emerging Market and #18 Further Ado – will all be looking for the best spots early to position themselves for a late surge. It will be a toss up to see which horse has the best break from the gate, if any of them get bumped early and who puts themselves in the best position to make a late push.

Closing Speed likes: #6 Commandment / #8 So Happy / #12 Chief Wallabee

If I’m betting $20 to $24 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 6, 8, 9, 12 = $24

$1 Exacta Box : 6/8/9/12/14  w 6/8/9/12/14 = $20

Longshots:

$4 Win/Place – #8 = $8
$4 Win/ Place - #7 - $8
$4 Win/Place - $14 = $8