SANTA ANITA - April 06, 2013
Race 9 - 4:05 PM
Santa Anita Derby (Grade I)
Purse - $750,000
Distance - One And One Eighth Miles
1 – Flashback
Hear The Ghost
3 – Power Broker
4 – Tiz a Minister
5 – Goldencents
6 – Super Ninety Nine
7 – Summer Exclusive
8 - Storm Fighter
9 - Dirty Swagg
The sad news from Santa Anita this week is that the San Felipe Stakes winner Hear The Ghost has been scratched from the race and due to a minor injury is off the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Last year and this year have been filled with some very talented horses (and I’m knocking on wood as I write this) most of the horses have remained healthy long enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby and beyond – which has made these past two seasons a lot of fun to watch.
Good Luck to Hear the Ghost – his Sire Ghostzapper was a Breeders Cup Classic Champion – so Hear The Ghost may still have a very bright future in front of him….that is after a couple of months rest.
However we’re still left with a very interesting line-up in California’s Premier Derby – the Santa Anita Derby!
#1 Flashback is currently the 6/5 favorite in this outing – and for good reason – he only has 1 loss in 3 attempts and the horse that beat him was Hear The Ghost.
However #4 Tiz a Minister was flying down the stretch and may have surpassed Flashback had the race been a little longer….which it will be (by another 16th of a mile) in the Santa Anita Derby.
Tiz a Minster only has 2 victories in 10 attempts….however he may now be finding races that suit his style a little better. He’s currently sitting at 5/1 odds….which is a little under bet in my opinion.
#5 Goldencents finished 4th in the San Felipe and coming out of the final turn was running stride for stride with Flashback after both horses had scorched the first half mile (45.95).
Goldencents seemed to hit a wall in the final furlong, as he faded from 1st to 4th in a matter of strides and I think the distance in the Santa Anita Derby may be a problem for this horse – unless the early pace drained him, and they have an answer for it this Saturday I’m not a big fan of his 9/2 odds – I see him more as 6/1 or 8/1.
#6 Super Ninety Nine travels from Arkansas to try his luck against the California ponies. Super Ninety Nine showed a lot of promise when he slogged to a first place finish in a muddy Southwest Stakes in February, but he followed it up with a very disappointing 5th place finish in his last race the Rebel Stakes.
After reviewing Super 99’s resume he’s the kind of horse who will flash a lot of talent in some races – and then just come out flat, or disappear, in others. In Six races he has 3 Victories, 1 Second Place finish – with a 4th and 5th place finish also mixed in. Hard to tell if we’ll be getting Super 99…or just 99? Against this kind of talent I don’t like his chances.
#7 Summer Exclusive has one race to his name – a 6 ½ furlong race that he won in early March. He’s currently slated at 20/1 odds – is this just a desperation shot at the KY Derby?? Or will this horse completely surprise everyone?? I think there’s too much talent in this race….but I’d be lying to say the mystery with this horse doesn't concerns me.
However at least Summer Exclusive has raced recently - #3 Power Broker hasn’t raced in almost 150 days since his 5th place finish here at Santa Anita in the Breeder’s Juvenile.
Lifetime he has only 1 victory in 5 races – and he’s bound to be rusty after such a long layoff. He’s currently going off at 4/1 --- and unless he’s made some incredible strides in his development I think 4/1 is too optimistic for this horse.
#8 Storm Fighter is sitting at 15/1 and enters the race after his first victory in three attempts. I just think he’s outclassed here.
|Strangely Sensitive Cheetah|
wags his tail in a jaunty manner
when his Swagg is Dirty.
#9 Dirty Swagg – has a great name…..and I’m not above appreciating a great name….I’m also not above taking a serious look at a horse with 30-1 odds --- but with only 1 win in 8 attempts and a field of very talented horses – Dirty Swagg will just have to be words I enjoy using in conversation, as opposed to a horse I’ll bet on.
My guess is the Management and Jockeys of Goldenscents and Flashback are going to try a different strategy than the one they used in the San Felipe in hopes of holding off a late charging Tiz A Minister.
Super Ninety Nine is a certainly a wildcard in this race – as he could blow past everyone in this race or….finish 5th again.
Closing Speed thinks this Saturday the Minister will be Sinister….
Closing Speed likes: 4,1,6
If I’m betting $16 here’s who I like
$1 Trifecta Box – 1,4,6 = $6
$1 Exacta – 4/1 w 1/4/6/7 = $6
$4 – 7 to win