AQUEDUCT - April 06, 2013
Race 11 - 6:28 PM
Wood Memorial S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,000,000
Distance - One And One Eighth Miles
1 – Chrisandthecapper
2 –Normandy Invasion
3 – Quinzieme Monarque
4 – Elnaawi
5 – Vyjack
6 – Mr Palmer
7 – Always in a Tiz
8 - Verrazano
9 - Go Get the Basil
10 – Freedom Child
|Ring A Ding Ding Baby....|
This Saturday Race 11 features a kind of turf war between two brilliant young Thoroughbreds as #8 Verrazano invades #5 Vyjack’s home course (Aqueduct) for the title of best of the Empire State….and as the song goes if you can make it here you can make it anywhere!
Both horses will enter the race undefeated – Verrazano was absolutely scary in his last trip the Tampa Bay Derby. In fact he was so superior his morning line is currently 4/5 odds. He’s won his first three victories……however my one concern is that this will be his first race out of Florida.
Verrazano's Last Race:
By contrast I like that Vyjack may have a bit of a home field advantage in this race – as all four of his victories have been here at Aqueduct. I tend to lean towards a horse who hasn’t had to travel and has already shown he’s comfortable with the track. If he stays at 4/1 odds…..he may be a bargain.
The best part about this race is that neither of these stellar horses (Verrazano / Vyjack) have really been tested – and that streak (along with at least one of their undefeated streaks) will come to an end this Saturday.
#2 Normandy Invasion is currently slated as the third favorite at 5/1 odds --- he showed a lot of promise last November here at Aqueduct….but his most recent outing was a very disappointing 5th place in the Risen Star Stakes (in Louisiana). He’s the kind of horse that could take the next big step in his development, and he may find some comfort at Aqueduct where he was once successful. It would be a modest upset if he won – but I don’t think it’s out of the question – more likely he’s sneaks into the 2nd spot at best.
Unless weather becomes a real factor in this race…..I think the rest of the field is really out classed in this one……however I do have
Two Longshot Alerts!!!
And they are-
#6 Mr. Palmer going off at 12-1 – he’s won his last two races, the last race at this distance 1 1/8 th miles – which is a distance neither of the two favorites have attempted yet.
Now what if I told you there was a 30-1 long shot who also recently won his last race at 1 1/8th miles – and also finished 2nd behind recent Florida Derby winner Orb and ahead of 3rd place Revolutionary (recent winner of the Louisiana Derby)?
That current 30-1 horse would be #10 Freedom Child.
Sure it’s been since last November when he split the Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby winners, but at this price I think he’s absolutely worth at least $2 at the betting booth.
In closing – after watching Verrazano’s last race it’s difficult to believe that anybody other than Vyjack is going to challenge this horse…..this is one of those weird races where –
I want Verrazano to win big with the idea that he’s the one to beat in the KY Derby.
I want Vyjack to win because I think there’s merit in being the best at a certain track.
|Strangely Sensitive Cheetah|
knows that when he writes
The writer means he can't wait
to gloat about the one
longshot he got right.
And what can I say I have a fondness for the underdog / long shot!
But my pick is relatively safe
Closing Speed likes: 8,5,10
If I’m betting $18 here’s who I like
$1 Trifecta Box – 5,8,10 = $6
$1 Exacta – 5/8 w 2/6/7/10 = $8
$2 Win - #6
$2 Win - #10