AQUEDUCT - April 06, 2013
Race 11 - 6:28 PM
Wood Memorial S.
(Grade I)
Purse - $1,000,000
Distance - One And One Eighth Miles
1 – Chrisandthecapper
2 –Normandy Invasion
3 – Quinzieme Monarque
4 – Elnaawi
5 – Vyjack
6 – Mr Palmer
7 – Always in a Tiz
8 - Verrazano
9 - Go Get the Basil
10 – Freedom Child
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| Ring A Ding Ding Baby.... |
This Saturday Race 11 features a kind of turf war between
two brilliant young Thoroughbreds as #8 Verrazano invades #5 Vyjack’s home
course (Aqueduct) for the title of best of the Empire State….and as the song goes if you can
make it here you can make it anywhere!
Both horses will enter the race undefeated – Verrazano was
absolutely scary in his last trip the Tampa Bay Derby. In fact he was so
superior his morning line is currently 4/5 odds. He’s won his first three
victories……however my one concern is that this will be his first race out of
Florida.
Verrazano's Last Race:
By contrast I like that Vyjack may have a bit of a home
field advantage in this race – as all four of his victories have been here at
Aqueduct. I tend to lean towards a horse who hasn’t had to travel and has
already shown he’s comfortable with the track. If he stays at 4/1 odds…..he may
be a bargain.
The best part about this race is that neither of these
stellar horses (Verrazano / Vyjack) have really been tested – and that streak
(along with at least one of their undefeated streaks) will come to an end this
Saturday.
#2 Normandy Invasion is currently slated as the third favorite
at 5/1 odds --- he showed a lot of promise last November here at Aqueduct….but
his most recent outing was a very disappointing 5th place in the
Risen Star Stakes (in Louisiana). He’s
the kind of horse that could take the next big step in his development, and he
may find some comfort at Aqueduct where he was once successful. It would be a modest upset
if he won – but I don’t think it’s out of the question – more likely he’s
sneaks into the 2nd spot at best.
Unless weather becomes a real factor in this race…..I
think the rest of the field is really out classed in this one……however I do
have
Two Longshot Alerts!!!
And they are-
#6 Mr. Palmer
going off at 12-1 – he’s won his last two races, the last race at this
distance 1 1/8 th miles – which is a distance neither of the two favorites have
attempted yet.
Now what if I told you there was a 30-1 long shot who also
recently won his last race at 1 1/8th miles – and also finished 2nd
behind recent Florida Derby winner Orb and ahead of 3rd place
Revolutionary (recent winner of the Louisiana Derby)?
That current 30-1 horse would be #10 Freedom Child.
Sure it’s been since last November when he split the
Florida Derby and Louisiana Derby winners, but at this price I think he’s
absolutely worth at least $2 at the betting booth.
In closing – after watching Verrazano’s last race it’s
difficult to believe that anybody other than Vyjack is going to challenge this
horse…..this is one of those weird races where –
I want Verrazano to win big with the idea that he’s the
one to beat in the KY Derby.
I want Vyjack to win because I think there’s merit in
being the best at a certain track.
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah knows that when he writes "Fondness" The writer means he can't wait to gloat about the one longshot he got right. |
And what can I say I have a fondness for the underdog / long shot!
But my pick is relatively safe
Closing Speed likes: 8,5,10
If I’m betting $18 here’s who I like
$1 Trifecta Box – 5,8,10 = $6
$1 Exacta – 5/8 w 2/6/7/10 = $8
$2 Win - #6
$2 Win - #10
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