Belmont Stakes 2018 - Triple Crown Edition

Belmont Park - June 08, 2018

Race 11 - 6:46 PM

Belmont Stakes.   (Grade I)

Purse - $1,500,000

Distance - One And One Half Miles

Surface – Dirt

1 – Justify

2 – Free Drop Billy                                                           

3 – Bravazo

4 – Hofburg                                                       

5 – Restoring Hope                         

6 – Gronkowski                                                

7 – Tenfold

8 – Vino Rosso

9 – Noble Indy

10 – Blended Citizen

After the Preakness I couldn’t help but wonder  -

Was the reason that #1 Justify wasn’t as dominant in the Preakness (compared to the KY Derby) because he was worn out from simply racing two weeks before and also having to endure two consecutive races in the slop?

In the KY Derby – Justify ran a 22.24 Quarter mile and was driving through the finish line with plenty of lengths between him and the next horse. In the Preakness he ran a slower first quarter mile (23.1) – and at the finish line Good Magic was in fighting distance….and Bravazo was closing fast! Did Justify get a little lucky holding these horses off?? Is it possible this Triple Crown contender has nothing left in the tank??

OR -- Did Justify just use the Preakness as a Prep race for the Belmont (which incidentally would mean that Justify is about as BADASS as they come)?  The slower first quarter mile makes a lot more sense if they’re preparing Justify for a longer race (which the Belmont will be). And as they came to the finish line, perhaps Jockey Mike Smith knew he had the win in his back pocket and just let Justify cruise home…..sure Bravazo was bearing down on the leader….but Mike Smith knew it was too late and there was no reason to push.

Justify arrives in New York
Is this the next Triple Crown Winner?

Take a look at the Preakness (what you can see through the Fog) – what do you think???

Morning line odds have Justify at 4/5 odds – so, in short, the experts believe that the Belmont Stakes is Justify’s race to “lose”.

And not only do I agree with that – I’m certainly hoping to see another Triple Crown winner….and a well-deserved one at that.

After watching #3 Bravazo close in the Preakness – he’s certainly the challenger to watch – it appeared that Bravazo just needed another 20 yards to overcome Justify – and in the Belmont he’ll have an additional 5/16^th’s of a mile to work with.

As a side note – (based on Belmont History and Bravazo’s previous races) I wouldn’t be surprised if Bravazo comes out flat for the Belmont and when he is asked to close – he doesn’t respond. He may have taken his best shot at Justify in Pimlico and come up short…..we’ll see.

Just the race itself will be tricky for all of these horses – they’ve never run this distance before – and the timing can be very problematic.

Some Belmont winners have used early speed to build up a large enough lead that when they head for home the competition is so worn down – all of the horses kind of “slog” to the finish line – with the early leader having established just enough of a lead to hold off his weary foes.

Photo of previous Belmont Stakes

This could very well be Justifys strategy – he certainly has the early speed – however if you wear your horse out too quickly in the Belmont, you can be an easy target in the stretch run – timing is crucial.

A strategy to defeat Justify (and while it’s not very sportsmanlike – it is legal) would be to BOX Justify in early – and keep him there until the final turn – his #1 post position certainly makes him an easy target for this.

When I say Box him in – that would mean one of these horses would have to jump out to a very early lead and move directly in front of him…..in the meantime the other horses would press Justify against the rail – leaving Justify nowhere to move and forced to run whatever pace is set up for him.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
doesn't like being Boxed in
OR put in a corner -
And he may watch Dirty Dancing
after the Belmont.

Boxing a horse can be very unnerving for the horse – and certainly frustrating for a great horse like Justify.

As they come out of the final turn – “eventually” a hole would open up for Justify to run through …. but by then it could be too late.

I just don’t see any of these horses willing to jump out front and cut Justify off – Mike Smith is a very wily Jockey and as long as Justify gets out of the gates well – I don’t think Mike Smith will allow Justify to get boxed in.

I believe what we'll see is Justify contend for the early lead (perhaps with Bravazo) -- and then the remaining contenders will hope that Justify fades in the LONG final stretch.

#4 Hofburg, #8 Vino Rosso and #9 Noble Indy – are definitely contenders to watch – these three horses in my opinion have substantial talent and they haven’t raced since the Kentucky Derby  -- so they’ll have fresher legs than Justify and Bravazo.

Coming down to the wire – I’m not concerned that Justify won’t have the “heart” to win – but I am concerned one of these other horses will be better suited for this distance.

But what can I say Closing Speed is a sucker for a Triple Crown Contender….

Closing Speed likes:  Justify, Noble Indy, Vino Russo

Closing Speed also thinks that it’s likely Current New England Patriot Rob Gronkowski will be at the Belmont Stakes – and there should be 4/1 odds on him taking his shirt off after the race.

Can you imagine being named after the guy on the left....poor horse.

If I’m betting $30 – this is what I like:

$1 Box Trifecta – 1,3,8,9 = $24

$1 Box Exacta – 3,4,9 = $6