Kentucky Derby 2019

Churchill Downs  – May 4^th, 2019

Race 12 - 6:50 PM (EST)

Kentucky Derby

Purse - $3,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 – War of Will 2 – Tax 3 – By My Standards 4 – Gray Magician 5 – Improbable 6 – Vekoma 7 – Maximum Security 8 – Tacitus 9 –  Plus Que Parfait 10 – Cutting Humor

11 – Haikal (SCR) 12 – Omaha Beach (SCR) 13 – Code of Honor 14 –Win Win Win 15 – Master Fencer 16 – Game Winner 17 – Roadster 18 – Long Range Toddy 19 – Spinoff 20 – Country House 21 – (AE)  Bodexpress

 There have been so many years in the past where I would begin my Kentucky Derby analysis by writing that “If you’re looking for one horse to win the Triple Crown it will be…….”

And this year I certainly would have stated that “That Horse” would be #12 Omaha Beach – Omaha Beach has a beautiful stride --- smooth like silk – and he runs with a mature presence and a lot of patience……on top of that – Omaha Beach closes well, he has raced and beaten substantial talent……AND.....He also won’t be joining us for the Kentucky Derby due to a Throat issue…..so there goes a full page I had written about his prospects.

 So with Omaha Beach – it leaves us with a fairly open 145th Kentucky Derby.

I’ll start by writing that **If the track is muddy (which it likely will be) – the race could open up even more and it wouldn’t surprise me if a long shot snuck into the top three……it would still surprise me if a horse over 20-1 won it……with the exception of one horse….which I’ll get too.

Let’s start with the horse that I think “should” be the favorite:

#5 – Improbable – This horse recently finished 2^nd on a muddy track going hoof to hoof with Omaha Beach. This horse may have only lost his last race because he took an outside position on Omaha Beach going into and coming out of the Second Turn – he lost ground, and Omaha Beach was way too good to lose ground too.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks it's fair to be fussy
when you're in a gate, in the mud
and have a guy sitting on you.

With a Better Trip – No Omaha Beach in sight – and experience on a muddy track – what’s not to like??

**Well here’s the problem – Improbable also finished 2^nd in the Rebel Stakes against #18 Long Range Toddy (30-1) – Improbable was VERY fussy as they loaded him into the gate in his last race….and came close to getting scratched.

I think he’s the best horse left in this group (current odds makers disagree), but I don’t love that he hasn’t won a race since December.

Arkansas Derby:

#6 Vekoma – currently sits at 15-1 odds….this is the relative long shot that worries me. If Vekoma shoots up above 20-1….I’m definitely in for a few bucks….the reason I like this horse is that – despite his very odd stride (who remembers Phoebe running in the park in the show “Friends”) – 

Vekoma won the Bluegrass Stakes convincingly.

Vekoma flashed enough early speed that he will be able to stay ahead of the Kentucky Derby Wall of horses – he has a solid post position and if Improbable decides to take an early lead, could stalk the leader into the final turn.

I LOVE that this horse could hit the first turn only going about two or three wide and have clear sailing for most of the race….very enticing.

The thing I don’t love about Vekoma (outside of that ugly stride….make that ugly and FAST stride) is that he won the Bluegrass Stakes.

For years I’ve watched horses do very well in this race and then do nothing for the big dance – almost like it’s built purposefully to mess with you.

Bluegrass Stakes: 

 #7 Maximum Security – (8/1) in my opinion, this horse is sliding under the radar right now – undefeated in all of his starts – he executed a fantastic game plan for the Florida Derby and is in the exact same post position for the KY Derby.

The only downside I see is that he enjoyed a “casual” pace in the Florida Derby – and that race may have lined up very well for him…….I feel this could be the horse more people should be talking about.

 #8 Tacitus – Wood Memorial Winner – (8/1)  -- Tacitus will likely sit back in the middle of the pack, but also try to keep in front of what will be a wall of horses. Tacitus will likely hope that his “inside” competition will wear each other out early and he can storm by in the final furlongs.

I like this horse….I usually lean towards horses who can create early leads in the KY Derby…especially in the slop – he could be the one to steal it in the final furlongs going along the rail or breaking out wide.

 #16 Game Winner and #17 Roadster – Game Winner is the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Winner, who just finished 2^nd behind Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby.

In the Kentucky Derby – it often helps to start the race this far outside – Quality horses can avoid getting trapped early and pick the perfect spot to move inside going into the first turn.

Both of these horses may look to run along with Tacitus – towards the front middle of the pack.

**Perhaps it’s because I was “So” sold on Omaha Beach – that I’m overlooking these two horses (who basically are the two favorites) – but I just don’t see it with these two.

Game Winner has two recent losses (against Roadster and Omaha Beach) – and Roadster is a tad untested for me.

And (for good or bad) I lean towards early speed in this race – and Roadster will be looking to come in late.

Santa Anita Derby:

Here’s how I see the race unfolding -- #2 Tax will look to claim the early lead…..he very well may not make it and get swallowed up and never be heard from again…..but I think he’ll make it.

Tax will look to set up the pace – Improbable, Vekoma and Maximum Security will be nearby.

One of these horses may pull back a little, looking to go inside before the second turn – depends on how muddy it is.

Further back will likely be Tacitus, Game Winner and Roadster --- there is a chance Game Winner and Roadster “won’t” find a comfortable spot going into the first turn and could lose a LOT of ground and energy going FAR wide – it’s doubtful but an early surprise could essentially take these two horses out of the mix.

Also – more than likely some Long Shot (or Long Shots) will make an early suicide run – meaning they won’t have the endurance late to make up for their early speed…….usually that long shot looks like they’re running in tar around the middle of the second turn.

Coming out of the final turn – I expect Tax (and the unnamed Long Shot) will begin giving up ground.

Improbable will take command – Vekoma…….is my wild card – he could be neck and neck with the leader….he may be in 10^th place by now……Maximum Security will challenge as well.

**IF these three are worn out early – Tacitus will likely be in the best spot to take it all – BUT I think Maximum Security rides by Improbable – Tacitus, Roadster and Game Winner will make a bid but the race works out too well for Maximum Security.

Closing Speed likes:  Maximum Security, Improbable, Game Winner

If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:

$1 Trifecta Box: 5,6,7,16 = $24

$1 Exacta: 5, 7 with 5,7,6,8,16,17,18 = $12

Longshot:

$5 Win/Place – #18 Long Range Toddy (30/1) 

(ONLY if it’s dry – solid horse, might hate the slop).

$5 Win/Place – #6 Vekoma (15/1)

$5 Win/Place - #13 Code of Honor (12/1)