Preakness Stakes 2021

Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 - 6:47 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,000,000
Distance - One And 3/16ths  Mile
Surface – Dirt

1 – Ram
2 – Keepmeinmind
3 – Medina Spirit
4 – Crowded Trade
5 – Midnight Bourbon
6 – Rombauer
7 – France Go de Ina
8 – Unbridled Honor
9 – Risk Taking
10 – Concert Tour

After a controversial victory in the Kentucky Derby #3 Medina Spirit has been given the thumbs up to race in the Preakness and from where I’m sitting he looks poised to make a legit run at the Triple Crown!

Nothing embarrassing about needing an
antifungal medication...(with a hint of steroids).

Medina Spirit has a lot going for him in this race – a stellar opening spot, and several top contenders have decided to skip the Preakness – leaving a less challenging field….but it's still far from a cakewalk.

Kentucky Derby:

#1 Ram has enjoyed two consecutive victories, has a lifetime 2 wins in 9 starts. Ram will look to sit back in the middle of the pack and make a late charge – but I think he’s out of his league here.

#2 Keepmeinmind – Finished a respectable 7th in the Kentucky Derby – and I think this horse is much better than his 1 victory in 7 attempts might indicate. Keepmeinmind also likes to make a late charge – and certainly has a chance to hit the board in Baltimore.

#4 Crowded Trade – Only has three career races – but had an impressive 2nd place finish in the Gotham Stakes and a Show in the Wood Memorial. Once again this is a horse looking to lay back deep until the final turn and then charge for home. Didn’t get the best trip at the Wood Memorial, AND may still be learning how to win races - At 10-1 I like the looks of this horse.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
is always a little sad he's not sipping
some elusive Bourbon at the mention
of Midnight Bourbon.

#5 Midnight Bourbon – Solid all around horse, with perhaps one of the coolest names ever. That aside this horse has a few things going for him – outside of the Kentucky Derby he’s been in the top 3,  7 out of 8 races – and with the exception of Medina Spirit all of the horses who were in front of him are taking the weekend off. 

**He’s the third favorite at 5-1 – would need the odds to be closer to 8-1 before I’d be interested.

#6 Rombauer – This horse has picked up a lot of long shot attention – he has 2 wins in 6 races – with a respectable 3rd place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes and a 5th place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile -  I don’t see this horse really competing for a win here – but could definitely steal a 3rd or 4th spot.

Rombauer may actually attempt to run with Medina Spirit close to the lead. Hasn’t flashed “amazing” early speed – but has shown enough.

#7 France Go de Ina – Coming from Tokyo and the United Emirates --  this horse offers a lot of unknowns. I’ll be the first to admit I usually give WAY to much credit to UAE horses in the Triple Crown races…..and this horse only finished 6th at the UAE Derby. He has 2 lifetime victories in 4 starts (both in Japan). 

#8 Unbridled Honor – At 15-1 I like this horse a LOT. He’s is also a horse that may like to wait in the back and close late – however in his last race (finishing 2nd in the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes behind King Fury) – he didn’t get the best trip and he was running in mud. 

He only has 1 win in 5 career races – and I think it would be a huge surprise if this horse pulled off a victory – but I like him in the mix for the top 3.

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes:

#9 Risk Taking – Won the Withers Stakes in February and then finished 7th in the Wood Memorial. He’s also at 15-1….and maybe this horse is primed to make a major bounce back here – but I think he’s also out of his league here.

#10 Concert Tour was the 1/9 favorite (yeah, you read that correctly) in the Arkansas Derby --- challenged the early speed and was passed in the final furlong by Super Stock to finish 3rd in the Arkansas Derby…..(keep in mind he didn’t manage to pass the horse he stalked for the entire race). 

In a race FILLED with closers – you have to wonder if Concert Tour has the distance in him?? OR did he just fall victim to a speed trap in the Arkansas.

Arkansas Derby:

Here’s how I see the race unfolding:

Medina Spirit and Concert Tour will lead the way – the question at this point is will Concert Tour attempt to set the pace? And if he does will that result in tiring both of these horses out before they hit the stretch ---- (setting it up perfectly for all of those deep closers). 

But I think Medina Spirit will run his race – I like Midnight Bourbon being able to work in the middle of the pack, likely with plenty of room to maneuver. I also think Unbridled Honor will ride along with Bourbon….. while the rest of the late closers hang out in the back of the pack.

An Unbridled Honor rode along
with a Midnight Bourbon...
I think I may have just written
a country music lyric?

When we hit the final turn – we’ll see if Medina Spirit and Concert Tour have anything left to offer.

This is where I think Midnight Bourbon and Unbridled Honor make a break for it. 

Closing Speed likes: 

Medina Spirit,
Unbridled Honor,
Midnight Bourbon,
Concert Tour

If I’m betting $32 – this is what I like:

$10 Win - #8

$4 Win/Place - #4

$1 Box Exacta – 3,5,8

$1 Box Exacta – 2,4,5,8