Churchill Downs –
May 1st, 2021
Race 12 - 6:57 PM (EST)
Kentucky Derby
Purse - $3,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface - Dirt
|
1 – Known Agenda 2 – Like the King 3 – Brooklyn Strong 4 – Keepmeinmind 5 – Sainthood 6 – O Besos 7 – Mandaloun 8 – Medina Spirit 9 – Hot Rod
Charlie 10 – Midnight Bourbon |
11 – Dynamic One 12 – Helium 13 – Hidden Stash 14 – Essential Quality 15 – Rock Your World 16 – 17 – Highly Motivated 18 – Super Stock 19 – Soup and Sandwich 20 – Bourbonic |
** I've written a quick snapshot of all of the horses – but #8 is
where it gets interesting.
Tough luck for #1 Known Agenda who drew the rail – this horse is a quality horse and definitely has potential to win big races down the road – HOWEVER this post remind me of 2010 with Lookin’ At Lucky, who was an exceptional horse but got swallowed up early and managed a 6th place finish. I would need 30-1 odds here before I would even consider it….and the morning line was 6-1. Hard Pass!
#2 Like the King – 3 wins in 6 Starts – I think the competition is too much for him here.
#3 Brooklyn Strong – 3 wins in 5 Starts – but finished 7th
in his last race featuring Winner #20
Bourbonic and 2nd Place #11
Dynamic One.
#4 Keepmeinmind – recently finished 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes behind Favorite #14 Essential Quality, and 2nd place #17 Highly Motivated. This horse has finished 4 times in the money out of 6.
 |
| I can actually feel this Saint disapproving of that play on words. |
#6 O Besos – Fun Trivia – He is the only horse to be sired by a Kentucky Derby Winner in this field (Orb 2013) – but O Besos hasn’t flashed that kind of talent so far – finishing recently behind #9 Hot Rod Charlie, #7 Mandaloun and #10 Midnight Bourbon (Twice). His last victory was in January.
#7 Mandaloun – Beat Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte, Lost to Midnight Bourbon in the following race Risen Star and then finished 6th behind Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos. Would need a lot of help here.
#8 Medina Spirit – Jockey J.R. Velazquez has won three Kentucky Derby’s, including 2020 onboard Authentic. This horse has a GREAT Post….however out of 5 Races this horse has only won 2 and has finished 2nd in the rest. Was expected to take the Santa Anita Derby, (with my Favorite Life is Good off the derby trail) – but #15 Rock # Your World stole the show. At 15/1 odds, with this post and this jockey, you have my attention!
#9 Hot Rod Charlie – Also a great Post – this horse has 2 wins in 7 attempts and looked great in the Louisiana Derby…..HOWEVER, his jockey J. Rosario will be riding #15 Rock Your World.
**However the Jockey they have is Flavien Prat has won the KY Derby before --- winning the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Louisiana Derby 2021:
#10 Midnight Bourbon – Jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith has a pair of Kentucky Derby wins – most recently 2018 with Justify. Out of 7 Starts this horse has hit the Winners circle only twice….however this horse has finished Win/Place/Show – 7 out of 7. At 20-1 this horse makes a good horse to round out a Trifecta bet.
#11 Dynamic One – Placed in the Wood Memorial behind #20 Bourbonic – up until the Wood Memorial this horse had an unimpressive resume. I firmly believe he’s well overmatched here – however maybe this horse is putting it together at the right time? Would need 50-1 odds before I’d be interested.
#12 Helium – (Speaking of finding interesting odds) --- DEFINITELY put this horse on your long shot list. This horse is undefeated in three races – including the Tampa Bay Derby….and he’s going well under the radar at 50-1. In Tampa he defeated #13 Hidden Stash, who recently finished 4th behind Favorite Essential Quality and Highly Motivated.
**This Long shot has everything
working for him – he’s still fairly unknown and he’s got the inside spot on
MOST of the more favored horses. I rarely like Long Shots….but this horse may
have just lucked into the Kentucky Derby and could finish dead last…..OR he
could be the unknown factor that SHOCKS Churchhill Downs!!!
High on Helium - Tampa Bay Derby:
#13 Hidden Stash – Hasn’t seen the Winners Circle since November 2020. Solid Horse, will run an admirable race, but I see this horse finishing 3rd at best.
#14 Essential Quality – Is the “Heavy” Favorite at 2-1. I “should” love this horse – who is undefeated in 5 Starts including the Juvenile Breeders Cup. This horse is the picture of poise and maturity for a 3 year old – this Colt doesn’t “race” he floats to victory.
*** Maybe I’ve got a California Bias (I really don’t think I do) – maybe I’m just seeing what I “need” to see – maybe I’ve had too much Midnight Bourbon --- but I think the 2021 Kentucky Derby is the perfect storm for an upset….and I may be alone on this – but I think this year is the year NOT to bet the favorite(s) to win.
There’s nothing wrong with this horse – but after the Juvenile Breeders Cup (which he won handily) – he’s raced in “gimme” races like the Southwest and Bluegrass…..incidentally I’ve NEVER trusted the results of the Blue Grass Stakes – and it’s never produced a Kentucky Derby Winner!! (Closest was Good Magic in 2018 – finished 2nd).
I believe this horse will
finish in the top 3 – but I’m anticipating UPSET!
2020 Breeders Cup
#15 Rock Your World – Winner of the Santa Anita Derby – this horse shocked So. Cal by hitting the Winner’s Circle on Dirt after having only previously raced on Turf. Rock Your World is undefeated in 3 races. His Jockey is Jockey is Joel Rosario (who won the Kentucky Derby on the aforementioned Orb).
Santa Anita Derby 2021:
#16 – King Fury – is scratched – had two victories at Churchhill Downs - would have been interesting......in the mean time
And because of the disappointing scratch here's a very young girl singing We Will Rock You to a Full Soccer Stadium -- in honor of Rock Your World!
**To quote William Shakespeare - though she be but little, she is fierce!
#17 – Highly Motivated – Last victory was in Nov. 2020 – Solid horse,
definitely should be a consideration for the top 5 --- would need a lot of help
to steal a victory. Recently finished 2nd in the Bluegrass Stakes
behind Essential Quality.
#18 – Super Stock – Won the Arkansas Derby – and has two victories in 8 races. Will have Jockey Santana aboard again (from Arkansas). Maybe this horse has finally found his stride?? My thought is he’s a grinder, good all-around horse but out of his league here.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah is VERY disappointed
to have come out of retirement for this
kind of Soup and Sandwich!
#20 – Bourbonic – If you like LATE closers, this horse might be your guy. Bourbonic is in the perfect spot – he’ll likely hang well back for most of the race and hope to find a hole to burst through in the final furlongs. This horse has 3 victories in 6 attempts….two of those victories came with Carmouche on board.
I’m not a big fan of late charging horses in the Derby – finding a hole through 18 other horses coming out of the final turn is asking for some substantial luck. However at 30-1 this horse might be worth the risk.
***This horse should ABSOLUTELY be on your radar for the Belmont Stakes!
Wood Memorial:
Here’s how I see the race
playing out –
#1 Known Agenda gets buried quick and fast -- he's lost this race even before we've hit 3 full seconds.
#8 Medina Spirit and #9 Hot Rod Charlie are going to push to set the tempo --- #15 Rock Your World may also challenge to set the pace early -- he may look to stalk the pace a few lengths behind in the first turn.
The “Big” questions are – Will #12 Helium also step up and challenge? And WHAT exactly will the strategy be for the favorite #14 Essential Quality??
Rock Your World, Medina Spirit and Hot Rod Charlie – I believe one of these horses will be the pace setter. ** Midnight Bourbon and Sainthood could be up front as well.
** If Essential Quality pushes the pace early – this could set up a late closer like #20 Bourbonic (who will likely be at the very back of the pack until the middle of the second turn).
** If Essential Quality wrangles for the middle of the pack he could get jostled in the traffic – setting up the early leads.
** If Rock Your World had to endure a wide trip he could fade – and if Essential Quality is stuck in traffic – that opens things up for Medina Spirit / Hot Rod Charlie / (Maybe) Helium and Bourbonic.
Sometime you’re betting the best HORSE in the Race – this year, you may be betting the “size” and “strategy” of the Kentucky Derby.
Closing Speed likes: Medina Spirit, Rock Your World, Midnight
Bourbon (Essential Quality 4th)
If I’m betting $36 on this race I like:
$1 Trifecta Box: 8,9,14,20 = $24
$1 Exacta: 14, 15 with 8,9,12, 20 = $12
Longshots:
$5 Win/Place – #8 Medina Spirit = $10
$2 Across the Board - #12 Helium = $6
$2 Across the Board -
# 20 Bourbonic = $6
$2 Across the Board -
#10 Midnight Bourbon = $6
 |
| Orb - 2013 Twin Spires! |
loveit
ReplyDelete