Saratoga – June 6th, 2026
Race 13 - 7:04 PM (EST)
Belmont Stakes
Purse - $2,000,000
Distance - One And One Quarter Miles
Surface – Dirt
#1 Vitruvian Man
#2 Powershift
#3 Chief Wallabee
#4 Renegade
#5 Ottinho
#6 Growth Equity
#7 Commandment
#8 Emerging Market
#9 Golden Tempo
When last we saw #1 Vitruvian Man -
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Leonardo Di Vinci's 15th century |
Nope...not that one - I mean the Horse #1 Vitravian Man - he was finishing 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby with Antonio Fresu aboard. This horse often finds a way to hit the boards finishing Top 3 in his last 4 outings...however he's only won 1 race in 6 lifetime Ownership and Trainer Doug O'Neil may think he can close well and have a shot at this distance - personally I just don't think he'll be able to compete in this very talented field - the morning line has him at 30-1....I agree.
#2 Powershift - Luis Saez will be aboard for the first time on this 12-1 morning line horse. This horse is coming off of a non-stakes victory and hasn't raced much compared to the rest of the field with 3 races total - (1 Win / 1 Place) and his only stakes outing saw him finish 6th. I think Vitravian Man has a better shot than Powershift??
#3 Chief Wallabee – I wrote that this horse should be considered for Exotics in the Kentucky Derby and he finished a very respectable 4th. This 3-1 horse has "Kind of" hit the cycle in racing - as he has finished 1st / 2nd / 3rd and 4th in Four Races. Once again I like this horse for at best a 2nd place finish but more likely a 4th place finish. There are three superior horses that have beaten him before and they'll be racing against him Saturday.
Speaking of superior horses -
#4 Renegade – I wrote the following for the Kentucky Derby:
(he’s my favorite this year with the absolute
worst spot in the race #1 post position)
Even with the absolute WORST post position you can be dealt in the Kentucky Derby this horse finished 2nd, which is a minor miracle in and of itself -- in his lifetime 6 races he's finished top 3 in ALL of them. He's also one of only two horses who has experience here at Saratoga - He's the favorite (2-1) for all of the right reasons.
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| They're calling it the Renegade Reprisal - the Saratoga Showdown The Battle at the Belmont - The Fray for the HAY!! Okay....no one is calling it any of these.... |
#5 Ottinho – Currently set at 20-1 -- Rider Dylan Davis will be aboard for the first time - Jockey Flavien Prat has had some success with this horse having ridden him 3 out of 4 lifetime races - in those races Ottinho finished 1st / 2nd and 3rd -- and one more 3rd to his resume. It's when I don't give much thought to a horse that I get into trouble.....but this horse strikes me as just happy to be here.
#6 Growth Equity – Finished 2nd here in Saratoga last July (2025) - and has mainly been a New York Runner - with two recent races at Aqueduct. Lifetime he has 4 races with 2 wins and 2 places - but he hasn't faced this kind of talent - at 12-1 he's got my attention - definitely a Trifecta / Superfecta consideration.
#7 Commandment – Notes from my Kentucky Derby write-up:
The (2nd)
morning line favorite has everything working for him. He’s won his last four
races including the Florida Derby – he even has 1 lifetime victory here at
Churchhill Downs. His Post Position #6 – places him in a great spot for this
race. I think Commandment will be the favorite when they approach the gate and
for good reason. HOWEVER he had Flavien Prat aboard for his Florida Derby win
and Irad Ortiz for the two races before that. This will be Saez’s first time
with this horse – is that enough to cause some doubt?? If he wins the Kentucky
Derby that will be 5 wins with 4 Different Riders.
Should have listened to my own notes - as the Jockey switch up may have had something to do with his lackluster results....a 7th place finish. Rider John Velazquez will be on board for HIS first time - as this horse has seen a total of 5 different Jockeys in 7 races.....He had FOUR straight wins before the Kentucky Derby - maybe the size of the field threw him off....maybe it was an off day - but even though Velazquez is a great jockey....I think the lack of consistency is reason enough to be careful here.
However Commandment still finished better than the horse Flavien Prat chose to ride:
#8 Emerging Market – Notes from my Kentucky Derby write up:
This horse
only has two races under it’s belt….(for a horse should that be
“harness”…”Saddle”??) Anyway this horse has 2 Wins in 2 races and
punched his ticket to the Kentucky
Derby with a win in the Louisiana Derby over #16 Pavlovian and #19
Golden
Tempo. He’s got a fantastic team of Trainer Chad Brown and Jockey
Flavien Pratt
– according to the interwebs Pratt is on Emerging Market because he had a
deal
in place with Chad Brown….and not necessarily because he chose this
horse over
#6 Commandment.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
I will say this, the Louisiana Derby winner has let me down many times. 15-1 odds is a tempting pot of Gumbo and he’s
got a solid post position and one of the best riders in the country. But I forsee
me getting let down again here.
wants you to know that the
Author of this blog
LOVES a good Po Boy!
And I WAS a little let down....I had hoped for Gumbo....but instead just got a half a Po'Boy!
My speculation is that Flavien Prat somehow picked the wrong horse to ride in these races - as Commandment finished better in the Kentucky Derby than Emerging Market who finished 10th.
Granted I have quite a bit of experience in choosing the wrong horses myself.
#19 Golden Tempo – Notes from my Kentucky Derby write up:
Had two early
victories at lesser distance in his four race career – but has recently
finished 3rd in his last two races – including the Louisiana Derby
behind Emerging Market and Pavlovian – difficult to see where he’s picked up an
edge with longer distance and being further outside.
Golden Tempo hadn't shown me much in his four races in Louisiana - giving us two 3rd place finishes in two Stakes Prep races --- finishing behind Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby....so with Golden Tempo I had expected day old Red Beans and Rice -- but instead was served up Antoine's Cherry's Jubilee and Cafe Brulot Diabolique....tableside!
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| Clearly I need to visit New Orleans again soon.... |
What can I tell you?? After watching the Kentucky Derby a few times - Golden Tempo makes the most of a difficult start - falls back more than 17 lengths --- waits for the right time to make a move and then overtakes Renegade in the final strides - Golden Tempo showed a lot of poise in the Kentucky Derby and certainly enough stamina to be considered a favorite here at the Belmont --- which this year will be at the same distance as the Kentucky Derby.
Jose Ortiz will be aboard once again - as he has been for all of Golden Tempo's races.
And yet Golden Tempo is currently at 9/2 odds -- which means the Morning Line favors Chief Wallabee and Renegade more.
I see NOTHING preventing Golden Tempo from running a very similar race to the Kentucky Derby.
As I see the Belmont Stakes it all comes down to a few questions -
Did Golden Tempo "arrive" as the best 3 year old in the country or just have 1 amazing day in Kentucky?
Did Emerging Market just have an off day in Kentucky and can defeat Golden Tempo once again?
Is Renegade really the best 3 year old horse in the country - but couldn't get past the terrible post position in Kentucky?
Why is Chief Wallabee second morning line favorite after finishing 4th behind Golden Tempo and having twice finished behind Commandment?
And finally can Commandment rebound in the Belmont with yet another new Jockey??
Closing Speed likes: Renegade / Golden Tempo / Emerging Market
In this case though - I think this is a good race to shake up your betting and take advantage of some interesting odds.
Trifecta Box: 4 / 9 / 7 / 8 = $24
Exacta Box: 4/9 w 3/6/7/8 = $8
If Growth Equity / Commandment and Emerging Market offer some great odds - I would pair them with Golden Tempo and Renegade --usually in a race like this the two favorites get "Split".
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