Kentucky Derby 2015

Churchhill Downs – May 2, 2015

Race 11 - 6:45 PM

Kentucky Derby (Grade I)

Purse - $2,000,000

Distance - One And One Quarter Miles

Surface - Dirt

1 –  Ocho Ocho Ocho 2 – Carpe Diem                                                 3 – Materiality                                                   4 – Tencendur                                                   5 – Danzig Moon                                                              6 – Mubtaahij                                                                    7 – El Kabeir 8 – Dortmund 9 –  Bolo 10 – Firing Line

11 – Stanford 12 – International Star 13 – Itsknockout 14 – Keen Ice 15 – Frosted 16 – War Story 17 – Mr. Z 18 – American Pharoah 19 – Upstart 20 – Far Right 21 - Frammento

**First some fun facts to entertain your friends:

• If you like "betting" the jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby last year and is riding the favorite American Pharoah this year.
• Jockey Calvin Borel has won three out of the last eight Kentucky Derbies and is on board #7 El Kabir.
• Only three of these horses were sired by Kentucky Derby winners - (Ocho, Ocho, Ocho / 2007 Street Sense) // (Dortmund // 2008 Big Brown) and (International Star // 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus)
• I've checked several times and they misspelled Pharoah -- my auto spell is NOT happy.

Most experts agree this is one of the most competitive Kentucky Derbies we've seen in a long time. Two of these horses are undefeated, and three of these horses only have one loss!!            

                                     

I believe you can easily make cases for 7 or 8 of these horses….and that’s what I’m about to do.

Let’s begin with #2 Carpe Diem – his only loss was in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (2^nd place) and that was his only loss in 5 races. Incidentally he was defeated by Texas Red who is off the Derby Trail.

Here is Carpe Diem’s last race - the Blue Grass Stakes:

(also featuring: #1 Ocho Ocho Ocho & #5 Danzig Moon)

Carpe Diem has been very impressive his entire career and the morning line has Carpe Diem at 8/1 odds – unfortunately he may have the most to overcome of all of the really quality horses. Carpe Diem will need a fast, clean break out of the gate and then to overtake the lead in the first turn. If he can accomplish that he’ll have a solid shot at going Wire to Wire in this one.

Unfortunately there are so many good horses in this race, I think he could easily get swallowed up in traffic before they hit the first turn and never find a way out.  Nobody is going to “help” this horse win.

Next to Carpe Diem is Florida Derby winner  #3 Materiality, who outlasted serious contender #19 Upstart.

Here is the Florida Derby:

(also featuring #12 Itsknockout & #19 Upstart)

Materiality enters this race undefeated – and his victory in Florida is impressive. He’ll have the same struggle as Ocho Ocho Ocho and Carpe Diem in that he’ll need to escape the starting  gate without error or his race could be over in less than 4 seconds.

Materiality is going off at 12-1 – I think fair odds would have him closer to 15 or 20 to 1. I don’t like his lack of experience….and he’ll need some luck in the beginning – but (similar to Carpe Diem) if he can escape the traffic and grab the rail early, he looks legit.

#6 Mubtaahij (means “elated” in Arabic” – however he’s an Irish Horse) absolutely crushed the competition in the UAE Derby – (for those who don’t know the UAE Derby is in Dubai) – See Here:

It’s not often we get the UAE Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby – so this is really cool! This horse brings a lot of mystery to the table and it would not surprise me if his odds go from 20-1 to somewhere around 10-1 or lower. Watching this race he looks like a monster to me (not the only one in this field though) ---- however most horses do not travel well – and Dubai to Kentucky is no easy trip, including the time change that I’m sure messes with a horses schedule.

He’s got everything going for him except the jet lag – I like this horse to be competitive, but a victory is asking a lot.

***Incidentally he's an Irish Horse -- and Irish Horses are always tricky -- for me they either seem to finish first (when I don't bet on them) or last (when I do).

#8 Dortmund is currently the 2^nd morning line favorite and for a number of very good reasons. He is undefeated in 6 races and has a fantastic post position. His last victory was the Santa Anita Derby – (also featuring #9 Bolo).

**As a side note Dortmund, twice squeaked out wins against #10 Firing Line.

Dortmund deserves to be a favorite in this race, however I don’t like the 3-1 morning odds. I don’t think he’s seen enough competition, and I think there’s too much talent in this race for him to be sitting at 3-1.

#12 International Star is currently going off at 20-1 – and this may be the horse flying under the radar. His lifetime record is 5 wins in 9 races – however he’s won his last three. Here he is duking it out in the Louisiana Derby:

(also featured: #11 Stanford, #14 Keen Ice, & #16 War Story)

International Star has a great post position – he’s got a lot of experience and he’s on a 3 race winning streak – he’s very tempting at 20-1 – if his odds stay here or go higher, you should really consider at least wagering $2 on this one.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
says the Cold Never Bothered
Him Anyway......

 Going off at 15-1 is Wood Memorial Winner #15 Frosted – I personally am not enamored with Frosted, and not just because when I think of his name I think of a very popular Disney Tune……I think the general consensus was that #7 El Kabeir would finally put his talent together and win the Wood Memorial, instead he came in a distant 3^rd, so Frosted was a bit of a surprise. 

See Wood Memorial: (also featuring #4 Tencendur and #7 El Kabeir)

Frosted only has 2 victories in 7 attempts and I would need to see odds north of 20-1 before even considering this horse.

Finally we come to the favorite #18 American Pharoah – winner of the Arkansas Derby, and a horse who has also won 4 of his last 5 races.

(Arkansas Derby – also featuring #17 Mr. Z and #20 Far Right)

The expectation is that American Pharoah will patiently wait in the opening stretch to find the right spot and then slowly move to the left….he’ll have ample time to do it from the 18^th spot, and he should be able to dictate where he'll be going into the first turn.

He’ll go wide in the first turn and at that point we’ll find out what kind of competition he’ll be looking at……did Carpe Diem or Materiality find a way to survive the opening …if they did American Pharoah will need to have the race of a lifetime….if they didn’t, things are looking up for American Pharoah.

Coming out of the first turn American Pharoah will be close to the lead –(a length or a few lengths off) and we’ll see if anyone is there to challenge him – likely Dortmund, Firing Line (don’t forget this horse) or International Star – all could be a few lengths ahead  or even with him as they hit the second turn.

If all of the major contenders (except Mubtaahij) are behind American Pharoah as they come out of the second turn and head for home…..then I believe only Mubtaahij stands a real chance at catching this horse from behind.

If Dortmund, Firing Line or International Star have the inside (and American Pharoah is forced wide in the final turn) and any of these horses have a length or two ahead of American Pharoah….it could be a nail-biting finish!!

Closing Speed likes: American Pharoah / Firing Line and Dortmund

If I’m betting $24 on this race I like:

$1 Exacta Box: 2,3,18 (Carpe Diem / Materiality/ American Pharoah) = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 6,10,19 with 8, 18 = $6

$1 Exacta Box: 8,18 with 6,10,19 = $6

$2 – to win – 20, 19, 6 = 6

Risen Star Stakes - 2015

Risen Star Stakes

Date/Track: 2/21/2015, Fair Grounds Race Course

Post Time: 5:24 PM ET

Distance:  1 1/16 m (Dirt)

1 – St. Joe Bay

2 – Tiznow RJ

3 – Bluff

4 – J.S. Bach

5 – Imperia

6 – War Story

7 – Hero Of Humor

8 – Keen Ice

9 – Big Big Easy

10 – International Star

For #10 International Star, #7 Hero Of Humor,  #6 War Story and #2 Tiznow RJ this will be a rematch from the LeComte Stakes (See Video):

If you pay special attention to International Star you’ll see just what an impressive victory this was – he remains very patient and very disciplined while pinned up against the rail for most of the race.

And then when he is asked he fearlessly kicks it into another gear – shoots a small lane and finally takes over the race – this is the kind of seasoned ability I haven’t seen often in three year old horses. In fact for most horses this is making the most out of a difficult trip.

**An interesting side note to International Star is that he was sired by 2000 Kentucky Derby Champion Fusaichi Pegasus – the reason that is of interest is that breeders have had difficulty breeding Fusaichi Pegasus, so it’s a little rare to see one of his progeny.....maybe some old Prince Jams would help????

International Star has reminded me how much I enjoyed
Prince's International Lover and Baby I'm a Star!

The current favorite going into the Risen Star Stakes is #5 Imperia  who last raced 84 days ago and finished 2^nd in the Jockey Club Stakes El Kabeir.

Last fall Imperia definitely looked like a promising contender – however this will be his first outing at the Fair Grounds, and I think that he will be at a disadvantage especially when facing several horses who have experience on this track.

#8 Keen Ice – was sired by one of my favorites Curlin – and I think he could surprise here….but I don’t think we’re talking winners circle. 

He had a horrible trip in the Holy Bull (finishing 6^th behind Upstart and the Gang). He got out of the gates poorly and he went for the rail and then got cut off – forcing him to pull back and he never really recovered. If he gets out of the gates well and finds his stride he could mix things up here. At 8/1 he could work in an Exacta or Trifecta.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
will NOT enjoy the irony of being
Bluffed by a horse named Bluff,
if he wins!

#3 Bluff – is a Tapit horse and Tapit horses always concern me – but outside of the breeding, I just don't see enough on the resume to become a believer.

I see similar results to the LeComte:

Closing Speed likes:  International Star / War Story / Imperia

Betting a $1 Exacta – I like International Star / Imperia and Keen Ice for ($6).