For #10 International Star, #7 Hero Of Humor, #6 War Story and #2 Tiznow RJ this will be a
rematch from the LeComte Stakes (See Video):
If you pay special attention to International Star you’ll
see just what an impressive victory this was – he remains very patient and very
disciplined while pinned up against the rail for most of the race.
And then when he is asked he fearlessly kicks it into
another gear – shoots a small lane and finally takes over the race – this is the
kind of seasoned ability I haven’t seen often in three year old horses. In fact
for most horses this is making the most out of a difficult trip.
**An interesting side note to International Star is that
he was sired by 2000 Kentucky Derby Champion Fusaichi Pegasus – the reason that
is of interest is that breeders have had difficulty breeding Fusaichi Pegasus,
so it’s a little rare to see one of his progeny.....maybe some old Prince Jams would help????
International Star has reminded me how much I enjoyed Prince's International Lover and Baby I'm a Star!
The current favorite going into the Risen Star Stakes is
#5 Imperia who last raced 84 days ago
and finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Stakes El Kabeir.
Last fall Imperia definitely looked like a promising
contender – however this will be his first outing at the Fair Grounds, and I
think that he will be at a disadvantage especially when facing several horses who
have experience on this track.
#8 Keen Ice – was sired by one of my favorites Curlin – and I
think he could surprise here….but I don’t think we’re talking winners circle.
He
had a horrible trip in the Holy Bull (finishing 6th behind Upstart
and the Gang). He got out of the gates poorly and he went for the rail and then got
cut off – forcing him to pull back and he never really recovered. If he gets
out of the gates well and finds his stride he could mix things up here. At 8/1
he could work in an Exacta or Trifecta.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah will NOT enjoy the irony of being Bluffed by a horse named Bluff, if he wins!
#3 Bluff – is a Tapit horse and Tapit horses always concern me – but outside of the breeding, I just don't see enough on the resume to become a believer.
I see similar results to the LeComte:
Closing Speed likes: International Star / War Story / Imperia
Betting a $1 Exacta – I like International Star / Imperia and Keen
Ice for ($6).
For #1 Juan and Bina, #2 Bluegrass Singer, #3 Frammento, #6
Frosted and #7 Upstart this will be a repeat of the Holy Bull (see Video):
The 8/5 odds favorite - Upstart is considered one the early
favorites for the Triple Crown – as he has won 3 out of 5 attempts and finished
3rd in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (behind Texas Red and Carpe Diem).
Even if Upstart were to come out flat --- #6 Frosted is a
quality contender and I would be very surprised to see someone from the field
upset both of these horses.
#5 Itsaknockout currently has 4/1 odds and is undefeated
after 2 races – however this seems like a HUGE leap in competition for this
horse.
The same could be said for #4 Gorgeous Bird who is currently
sitting at 6/1, and has two victories in three attempts.
Outside of using Upstart in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 --- I’m not
crazy about putting money on this one -- just sit back and watch some great Thoroughbreds run.
A quick glance at Gulfstream Park - here is my Pick 3 – beginning with Race 9:
Majestico Bold Conquest Mr. Z Bold Animaux For many of these horses this will be a rematch of the Smarty Jones Stakes (see video):
Unfortunately for # 10Mr. Z. - he ran without a lot of disciple or control in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
It appears to me that in the first turn he's turning his head towards the infield, which is not an optimal racing style -- nor is sweeping to the middle of the track after coming out of the the second turn.
Mr. Z -- may be the most talented horse in this field -- however he also seems to be one of the least focused animals at this point in his career -- not terribly unusual for a three year old.....but he may have a case of Arrested Development......perhaps he should have been named......
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
REALLY misses
Arrested Development
Mr. Z is the most experienced horse entering the Southwest Stakes -- and I believe at post time he could be the favorite - despite having only 1 victory in 9 outings. If Mr. Z can just hold off on making big mistakes he could be the one to watch after this race.
#2 Far Right is the current favorite - and he has enjoyed 2 wins in 7 outings -- (as you've likely already watched) - he was superb in the Smarty Jones - his timing and ability to ride the rail in the home stretch shows a maturity you look for as we approach the Triple Crown. However I'm having a hard time with only 2 wins in 7 attempts.
Currently I'm getting conflicting information about #1 J.S. Bach - I'm reading in some materials that he IS racing and in others that he will likely run next weekend in the Risen Star Stakes.
J.S. Bach is currently one out of seven of these horses to only have 1 victory going into this race -- however J.S. Bach is going off at 4/1 and could be looking to make a name for himself in this one.
This is just the kind of race that screams out a LONG SHOT to me -- Mr. Z is likely the superior horse, but seems to find new and unusual ways to lose.
If J.S. Bach runs - I like him -- but not at 4/1 odds.
If Far Right pulls off a victory here - he very well could be a contender.
But in honor or President's Day -- if I'm throwing out a couple of Washingtons or Lincolns - I like a few long shots in this one.
At 30-1 I like #7 Phenomenal Phoenix -- he hasn't matched up with this kind of competition, but I like his post position and I like his limited experience.
Also at 30-1 I like #12 Bold Animaux - same sire as Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, and he enters this one having won 3 out of 5 races. I fear he may not like the distance here, but at 30/1 he's worth a look.
And finally #9 Bold Conquest - sired by one of my favorites Curlin. 130 some days ago he finished 3rd (immediately behind Mr. Z) in the Breeders Futurity. He will likely come out rusty -- however in this field I'll might take the chance that he'll come out a rested and much better horse than he was last October.
For your betting dollar in this race I say Be BOLD, Be BACH or Be Phenomenal -
$5 - Win - Bold Conquest
$2 - Win - Bold Animaux
$2 - Win - Phenomenal Phoenix.
(If JS Bach runs - I'd likely do an exacta of JS Bach / Mr. Z and Bold Conquest - Bold Animaux and Phenomenal Phoenix -- for $5 -- but I don't think JS Bach is coming out to play.
For a number of reasons I thought I'd skip writing about horse racing this year - my original goal, nearly 7 years ago, was to champion a sport that (for a number of reasons) doesn't get the positive attention it deserves.
When I began writing I had really hoped by some stroke of luck I might cover a Triple Crown Winner from the his (or her) first big stakes victory to the walk off victory in the Belmont.
Move Along Nothing
to see here!
And a couple of times we came close - Big Brown, I'll Have Another and California Chrome almost did it.
And as the racing began in 2015 -- I approached it with cynicism -- in my memory the early three year old races seemed rarely competitive and also were seemingly filled with horses that were unlikely to be heard of once the "real" races began.
(Sadly) as I approached 2015 - I figured what's the point -- the populous is correct about Horse Racing there's nothing to see here....let's all just show up in May for two races and a call it a sport.
And then I saw three of the best races I've seen in a long time ---
The first race took place back in December - which was the Los Alamitos Futurity -- this features an incredible three horse finish of Mr. Z, Dortmund and Firing Line!
The rematch of two of these horses took place in Santa Anita just this past Saturday (Feb. 7) - between Dortmund and Firing Line in a rivalry rematch certainly worth watching!
For a little more insight on these rivals:
Dortmund was sired by Big Brown who won the 2008 KY Derby and Preakness - and in my opinion was the closest horse we've had in 15 years to winning the Triple Crown.
Firing Line was sired by Line of David - who was a very solid horse - winning the 2010 Arkansas Derby but failing to really compete in the Triple Crown races.
And here is the Rematch -
And finally one of the best finishes I've seen in a long time -- you'll likely need to watch this one twice.
Far from Over (so aptly named in this last outing) was sired by Blame who is the only horse to have ever defeated (fan favorite - the Queen of Racing herself) Zenyatta in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic.
My feelings about these races and horse racing can pretty much be summed up here ---
Due to time limitations I may change how I approach my blog but you can be sure I will remain consistent in two things --
#1 This guy will still be apart of the blog -
Strangely Sensitively Cheetah
does not like change....or
being at the end of the blog!
#2 My betting suggestions should still probably be ignored.
These very interesting prospects, Dortmund, Firing Line and Far From Over may have made me an offer I can't refuse.
For anyone who doesn’t know, the Triple Crown in Horse
Racing means a horse must win the Kentucky Derby (in Kentucky) on the first Saturday in May,
The Preakness (in Baltimore) two weeks later and then The Belmont Stakes (in
New York) three weeks after that.
It is a task that involves taking on possibly 19 other
horses in the first race – an unusually brief rest (by modern terms) to win the
second race, and finally (after still a relatively short rest) winning the
longest race they have ever run (and likely will ever run), a mile and ½ , for
the final leg of the Triple Crown.
And to top it off – you can only do this during your
three year old season – meaning #1 California Chrome can’t come back and try this again
next year.
Now who's up for some Atari Pong?
Many GREAT horses have fallen short since 1978 when
Affirmed was the last horse to win the American Triple Crown --- and today we’ll
see if California Chrome can break the drought.
Since April California Chrome has performed like clock-work – his recipe for the winners circle has been to stay towards the top of the pack until then accelerate out of the final
turn like he’s been shot out of a cannon.
California Chrome has glided home, unchallenged, in his
last three races – in my opinion his biggest challengers today will be Fatigue
from racing in four different states (California , Kentucky, Maryland and
finally New York) in almost two months, and the daunting distance of this race.
His competitors are solid --- but all things being equal
he has shown that he can beat all of them on a consistent basis.
To be up front – I think when it comes to the Belmont
Stakes – if you take the favorite out of it – it’s always kind of a wide open
race – because you just have no idea how these horses are going to react to
this distance.
#1 Medal Count – his last win was the Transylvania Stakes
in April, he looked good in the Blue Grass Stakes, however when he’s faced more
quality talent he has not finished well (8th in the Kentucky Derby,
5th in the Fountain of Youth)
#11 Tonelist recently finished 1st in the
Peter Pan Stakes here in New York – defeating 2nd place #8 Commissoner
and 4th place #3 Matterhorn.
Tonelist made a point of setting the early pace in the
Peter Pan --- and ran very well on a sloppy track. I’m not crazy about this post position today –
but he could push California Chrome early and that could leave Chrome winded in
the final furlong.
#4 Commanding Curve was closing on California Chrome in the
final furlongs in the Kentucky Derby. This is the horse that concerns me the
most – however I’m only basing that on how strong he looked at the end of the
Kentucky Derby. His last victory was in November – but this horse has a solid
post position and if he can finish as strongly as he did a month ago – he might
be able to upset a tired Cali Chrome.
#5 Ride On Curlin could be the second best horse in this
race – however this will be his fourth race in less than two months, and I
think asking for a Belmont Victory out of this horse is asking too much. I like
that they’re running him as if he’s going for the Triple Crown….but I think
this horse needs to rest for a few months and start building towards a solid
four year old season.
#6 Matuszak – his last race was a 2nd place
finish in April. He has shown nothing to indicate this is his race, but he’s
exactly the kind of horse that comes out of nowhere.
#9 Wicked Strong is considered the second favorite in
this race – he won the Wood Memorial and finished 4th in the
Kentucky Derby. Reports from Belmont are that he has looked sharp in workouts…..and
he does have an advantage of being more rested than California Chrome and only
having to race in two states (Kentucky and New York) over the past two months.
#7 Samraat – has finished just behind Wicked Strong in
his past two races (2nd in the Wood Memorial / 5th in the
Kentucky Derby). Samraat had won 5
straight races before meeting up with Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial .
I think Wicked Strong, Samraat and Tonelist are the three best New
York has to offer – they are properly rested and have home court advantage here in New York – Wicked Strong closed very well in the Wood Memorial – so he deserves
to be considered a solid threat.
#10 General A Rod – similar to Ride On Curlin – this horse
will be running in all three Triple Crown races and I have a lot of respect for
racing like you’re going for it all. The General finished 4th in the
Preakness and 11th in the Kentucky Derby. Solid horse – but he comes
in with no advantages and just as fatigued as the Favorite who has beaten him
soundly.
When the bell
rings and the gates fly open – I look for Samraat, Tonelist and California
Chrome to set up shop at the top of the pack – pace will be incredibly
important in this race – if these top three horses start dueling early and set
a half mile pace under 48 seconds…..it could disastrous if you’re hoping for a
Triple Crown bid.
As the come out of the final turn I’ll be looking for
California Chrome to separate from the pack – I think he’ll be able to own the
rail the entire race so he could put about 4 or more lengths between him and
the rest as the head for home.
At this point we’ll see if Samraat or Tonelist are still
in the hunt and pushing Cali Chrome or if they’ve begun to fade – in stretch for home I’ll start looking for Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve to start closing ---
at it will simply come down to how fatigued California Chrome is,
and if he has the fight to hold off any of the late closers.....or if one of these horses just "has" the distance in him?? As I stated it's more wide open then most might think.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah would
love a California Chrome victory
and a Nathan's Hot Dog with
Chili Fries......
What can I say….I’d love to see California Chrome win a
Triple Crown…..
Closing Speed likes: California Chrome / Commanding Curve
/ Tonelist
#3 California Chrome enters this race as the 3/5 favorite
– which means most people believe he’s got this race in the bag….and for good
reason -
California Chrome has won his last five races, many of them solid challenges. He is fresh off a strong Kentucky Derby victory –
and for his style of racing he is in the perfect starting position (#3).
The only two things I can imagine preventing him from
doing very well in this race is if the other horses purposefully box him in at
some point and prevent him from escaping in traffic – it may seem
unsportsmanlike, but I’ve seen mediocre horses do what they can to prevent a
great horse from winning just to give themselves some kind of shot.
The other possible letdown would be if Jockey Victor
Espinoza “asks” California Chrome to kick in at the end of the final turn and
the horse just doesn’t have it in him this time.
Personally I believe that Espinoza is too good of a
Jockey to let his horse get boxed in – and I also think California Chrome is
going come out of the final turn firing on all cylinders -- so far this horse has run like clockwork.
It is very possible that California Chrome will go Wire
to Wire in this race – meaning he’ll take the rail in the first turn and glide
for most of the race until hitting the after burners coming out of the final
turn and win this race by about 5 lengths. If all of this sounds a little too
predictable or easy….what can I say he’s a 3/5 favorite?!?!
If (and it’s a big IF) #1 Dynamic Impact – can break very
well, take the rail and push California Chrome wide in the first and final
turns, and then find the strength to go toe to toe with the Kentucky Derby
Champion down the stretch….he has a shot.
However if he doesn’t come out of the gate well – he
could easily fall in the middle of the pack and never be heard from again – I
also think he could try to keep up with a faster early pace then he’s prepared
for and fade badly coming out of the final turn.
#2 General A Rod is a solid horse – but hasn’t won a race
since January. Unless he “finds his stride” or California Chrome loses his – I
don’t see him pulling off an upset -- General A Rod strikes me as a horse who will do very well should he continue running over the next few years.
#4 Ring Weekend – is a Tapit horse….and Tapit horses
always concern me. I think this horse “could” be a lot of trouble for
California Chrome – but that’s only if Ring Weekend takes an early lead and
never looks back, which was his recipe for the Tampa Bay Derby.
See Video
However Ring Weekend finished 2nd against
lesser competition in the Calder Stakes and it’s been 42 days since his last
race. You could chalk an upset here to a horse bouncing back after a solid
rest…..but I think it’s also likely this horse comes out rusty and finishes
towards the back of the pack.
#5 Bayern – finished third in the Arkansas Derby and
second in the Derby Trial Stakes. A solid horse – great jockey, but he seems
out classed here.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah likes a Filly with an Attitude!
#6 Ria Antonia – the filly fresh off of her 6th
place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. She has two victories (including the
Breeder’s Cup Fillies) – but hasn’t won a race since that one back in November.
I think the Owners/Management believes there’s a lack of talent in this race
and maybe Ria can compete better against the fellas – interesting.
#7 Kid Cruz – He’s won 3 out of his last 4 races
including his last victory which was here at Pimlico. He’s a bit of an unknown
and at 20-1 could be worth a $2 bet.
#8 Social Inclusion is currently going off as the Second
Favorite – however he doesn’t have a lot of experience as he has only three
career races (although he won his first two). His last race was a 3rd
place finish in the Wood Memorial 42 days ago.
I think most people are looking at his early speed as a
sign he could be a challenger – but I disagree with him being the second
favorite.
#9 Pablo Del Monte – he has won a 2 races in his 6 race
career – he strikes me as a horse just happy to be here – I think 40-1 odds
would be more suitable here – his last
victory was October 2013.
#10 – Ride On Curlin - He has experience – 10 races – but he also
doesn’t win much – Twice. He had a rough trip in the Kentucky Derby, but still
finished a respectable 7th – I think he could easily end up in the
top 3 – I just don’t see him beating California Chrome if the Cali runs his
race today.
Most people agree this is California Chrome’s race to
lose – I think if there’s going to be a surprise it will be Ring Weekend or Kid
Cruz……but it seems unlikely.
Closing Speed like: California Chrome / Ride On Curlin /
Ring Weekend (3/10/4)
With these odds it’s difficult to make a bet – but….
$1 Exacta Box (3/7/8) = $6
$1 Pick 3 (beginning with the Race before the Preakness) –
1/3/4/6/7 with 3 with 1/2/3/4/5 = $25
As we prepare for the 2014 Kentucky Derby many are disappointed because of what “could have been”.
So many very talented young horses found themselves off
the Derby trail due to injury – Horses like New Year’s Day and Havana who
finished 1st and 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Futurity,
Florida Derby Winner Constitution, Cairo Prince who looked untouchable in the
early spring and several others give this year’s Triple Crown a “depleted”
feel.
And it’s my opinion that because so many horse racing
fans had their eyes on other horses – #5 California Chrome may seem like he’s
simply the best of the rest……however his Santa Anita Derby victory is something
to behold.
As you watch this race there are a number key points to
consider.
He keeps pace with Dublin Up in a 22.89 quarter mile –
which is a fairly swift pace for this distance and at this age.
In the final stretch he doesn’t wobble or wander into a
different lane – which is often a sign of fatigue in these young horses ---
instead he runs a VERY STRAIGHT line and he runs it several lengths in front of
a number of quality horses.
Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
wonders...why do Haters
gotta Hate??
One other item to consider – his mile and a quarter was
the fastest of “big” derby winners (Wood
Memorial / Arkansas Derby / Florida Derby / Louisiana Derby) and he did it
without being pushed.
Granted Santa Anita tends to be a little faster…..so there's room for doubt....but there's a lot of whispers that this horse ain't all that....despite his dominate victory....
See Video:
So there’s a VERY good reason this horse is the favorite –
and he has a sweet post position to start the race.
However he could get swallowed up in the pack of 18 other
horses --- and California Horses have fallen short many times before in
Kentucky so if you don’t feel like betting the favorite here are some other
horses I think you should consider.
#1 Vicar’s In Trouble – This horse has a great Twitter
account….no I’m not kidding – unfortunately this very talented Colt drew the #1
spot and I believe he’s going to get engulfed by EVERYONE to his right and will
probably lose this race in less than 2 seconds into it.
HOWEVER – if Vicar’s in Trouble can manage to shoot out
of the 1 spot and find a way to grab the early lead….he could be very tough to
catch…..but that’s asking A LOT!
No matter where he finishes – if he runs in the Preakness….don’t
forget this horse.
#4 Danza….okay for those of you who don’t know – this horse’s
sire was named Street Boss --- so you combine “Boss” with “Danza” and you get……
Oh --it HURTS
But you'll share this if you have the chance.
Word play aside – Danza pulled off a solid victory in
the Arkansas Derby and being positioned just inside the favorite California Chrome might
just be the best place to be…..however in my opinion the Kentucky Derby could
be overwhelming for Danza as this will only be his fifth career race – and his
only two victories are the Arkansas Derby and his Maiden race back in July
2013.
He certainly flashed talent in the Arkansas Derby – but I
think this could be too much, too soon for this horse.
#6 Samraat – was undefeated in five races, until finishing 2nd
in the Wood Memorial --- maybe this was
just an off day for this horse, maybe the Trainers weren’t concern with winning
and were more focused on getting ready for the KY Derby??? My feeling is that at this point in his career asking for anything
over a mile and 1/8th is asking for more than he’s got.
#7 We Miss Artie – Okay you want my CRAZZZZZZZZYYYYY long
shot pick – then consider We Miss Artie winner of the Spiral Stakes, and also
the owner of a solid post position as well.
He’s got a solid late kick which has won a number of
Kentucky Derbies – I think he’s underbet…..however in February he finished 8th
behind Wildcat Red and General A-Rod, so he may be lucky just to finish in the
top 10 here. But he could easily be 100-1 at the bell.....
#10 Wildcat Red finished 2nd (behind
Constitution) in the Florida Derby – and I like this horse – however I think he
may need the early lead to contend (which I don’t think he’ll be able to get) –
and it appeared to me that he wilted at the end of the Florida Derby, which is
either a lack of competitiveness or struggling with a lesser distance than the KY
Derby --- neither make me optimistic. However with a little luck he could certainly
be in the top 3.
#12 Dance with Fate – If I’m betting just one horse to
upset California Chrome it would be the 20-1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Dance
with Fate! I’m not real crazy about
placing my hopes on the Blue Grass Stakes winner, because the surface for the
Blue Grass is Synthetic which is different from the Kentucky Dirt.
Dance with
Fate also finished only 2nd in the relatively lowly El Camino Real
Derby….which also doesn’t inspire…..he only has three victories in eight
attempts…..HOWEVER….
Dance with Fate shows solid maturity and patience in the Blue Grass which featured 14 horses….so numbers don’t rattle this horse.
He also closed strongly and looked very comfortable
stretching it out a little more distance…..one other thing to consider the past
seven Kentucky Derby Winners all came from Posts 10 or greater (and 4 out of those 7 were #11).
#12 Orb/ #11 I’ll Have Another / #11
Super Saver / #11 Animal Kingdom
/ # 11 Mine That Bird / #20 Big Brown / #10 Street Sense. – it hasn’t been
since Super Horse #8 Barbaro that we’ve had a winner inside #10.
In my humble opinion – Dance with Fate should be no less
than the third favorite in this race.
See Blue Grass Stakes:
#13 – Chitu is an interesting prospect. He’s won 3 out of 4 career races – however he
hasn’t raced since his victory 41 days ago in the Sunland Derby. His Sunland
time was 1:47 – similar to California Chrome. At 20-1 he may be worth a few
dollars to bet……he definitely fits the bill of the horse that crosses the
finish line first and everyone reaches for their program to find out who this horse is???
However in Feb. he was defeated by #18 Candy Boy --- and
Candy Boy finished well behind California Chrome in the Santa Anita.
#15 Tapiture worries me strictly because he’s a Tapit
horse……he’s finished progressively worse in his last two races (4th
and 2nd) after showing some promise as the victor in the Southwest
Stakes in February. I don’t think he can muster the distance…..but still he’s a
Tapit horse, and those Tapit horses seem to be wired to win.
#18 Ride On Curlin – I loved this horses sire Curlin –
and Jockey Calvin Borel definitely knows how to show up big in the Kentucky
Derby…..but only 2 wins in 9 races…..and even my “boy” Curlin didn’t win the KY
Derby.
#20 Wicked Strong – will likely go off as the second or
third favorite in this race and it makes a lot of sense. He finished strong in
the Wood Memorial, his post position doesn’t really affect his style of racing
as he’s likely to stay in the middle or back of the pack and close in the final
stretch.
He’s got a great closing kick and if California Chrome
doesn’t show up – he could be the one to beat.
Closing Speed likes: California Chrome / Dance With Fate
/ Wicked Strong
