Pimlico Race Track
RACE 13 - 6:48 PM
Preakness S. (Grade I)
Purse - $1,500,000
Distance - One And 3/16 ths Mile
Surface – Dirt
1 – War of Will
2 – Bourbon War
3 – Warriors Charge
4 – Improbable
5 – Owendale
6 – Market King
7 – Alwaysmining
8 – Signalman
9 – Bodexpress
10 – Everfast
11 – Laughing Fox
12 – Anothertwistoffate
13 – Win Win Win
First – let’s
discuss the 145th Kentucky Derby which was about as disappointing as one of
the last Game of Thrones Episodes.
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| Million an episode to drink wine and look like I'm disappointed to be out of wine... best Role ever! Now...someone get me more wine! |
I was hoping the Preakness would give us a chance for a
rematch and give us some “fun” piece of mind for the strange end results of the
Kentucky Derby - – but the horses involved can not and will not contend.
However - News came in that Gary West - owner of Maximum
Security – disqualified “winner” of the Kentucky Derby, is putting up $20
million dollars for a rematch – and I believe THIS is the kind of thing Horse
Racing needs to draw in people:
It will likely prove very little – but it’s charitable, it’s fun and
perhaps people will tune in (should it happen) just to see “what”
happens......which, I predict, means Maximum Security will end up killing The
Mountain, marrying Sansa, defending the Shire and resume his spot as the true heir to the Throne.
Moving on to the Middle Child – The Preakness – with Maximum
Security out (the “disputed” winner) and Country House out (the only Triple
Crown hope) --- the Preakness offers a wide open race…but a race not as many
people will care about as usual….which is still not that many.
But since I am stinging a bit from picking the Winner
(Maximum Security) and then watching him get DQ’d….I want redemption.
Here’s how I see the race unfolding – MOST of these
horses like to hang around in the middle of the pack or in the back of the pack
and make their big move in the second
turn.
I believe that the horse that takes the early lead and
sets the early tempo will be instrumental in this race. And I believe that
horse will be #3 Warriors Charge – his
last race was a trip to the winners circle in a humble Optional Claiming race
in Arkansas……however, he’s won consecutive 1 1/16th mile races and
at 12/1 --- his odds have me interested.
Especially because the 3 spot will be the perfect spot for this horse to
fly out early – and maybe take a substantial lead – that the others might not
be able to catch.
I’m looking for the current favorite #4 Improbable to keep within 3 or 4 lengths of the leader(s) –
depending on how fast the first half mile is.
On paper, Improbable is “The” pick, it’s his race to lose
– likely the most talented, most tested and he owns a solid starting post – he’s the
only horse that’s landed Top 4 in three major races….finishing 2nd
in the Rebel Stakes, finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby…and
finishing 4th in the Kentucky Derby….my problem is….this horse
hasn’t actually….you know, WON in awhile.
I don’t love that he’s one of the few horses coming in
with only two weeks rest – and I really don’t like that he hasn’t put up a W
since December……in the end he’ll be there – I’m just not sold that he’ll be
there first.
To his immediate right is #5 Owendale -- this horse is
coming off of an impressive victory in the Lexington Stakes. Owendale will
likely hang in the back of the pack – and has shown an impressive ability to flip
the switch and pass horses like they’re standing still.
I had my eye on this horse as a Belmont Stakes special,
because I love his late kick – if Improbable isn’t in top form – I think
Owendale could be the horse to watch.
I don’t love that this horse hangs so far in the back –
I’ve seen so many young horses “stall” when they come to big races and
absolutely fail to show any kick down the stretch.
The Preakness will be a rematch between Owendale and #12 Anothertwistafate – despite finishing 2nd
behind Owendale in the Lexington – Anothertwistafate is going off at 6/1 odds –
while Owendale is going off at 10/1. Go figure?
Speaking of “interesting” odds – #1 War of Will is currently the 2nd favorite at 4-1 –
this is a horse that finished 9th in the Louisiana Derby and 7th
in the Kentucky Derby – the oddsmakers may be going all the way back to his
Risen Star Stakes race where he competed for the lead early and finished in 1st…but
I don’t see what everyone loves about this horse – (so maybe a good bet?).
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| Strangely Sensitive Cheetah thinks it's HILARIOUS that this writer thinks a 25 second, quarter mile is slow. The only "quarter" this writer can finish in 25 seconds is a Quarter Pounder with Cheese. |
#7 Alwaysmining
– would be a good choice to be the second favorite here – he’s beaten #13 Win
Win Win before and has won 6 straight races – however I didn’t love that the
last race this horse won the first ¼ mile was in 25.00 seconds…..that is super
slow – which, again I think could help Warriors Charge.
Another horse I believe is being overlooked is #9 Bodexpress – going off at 20-1 –
finished 13th in the Kentucky Derby – however finished a close 2nd
to Maximum Security in the Florida Derby – I think he’s prime for a Bounce!!
Overall this race feels very wide open – especially with
Improbable being a temperamental horse who could get scratched before the race
even begins – also I’m not crazy about Improbable not being able to close out
races.
I believe #3 Warriors
Charge will take the early lead – I believe with four of the better horses
coming off the Kentucky Derby with tired legs – Warriors Charge stands a chance
to go wire to wire in this one.
However – as they hit the middle of the 2nd
turn – here’s what I forecast –
Owendale kicks in and makes a charge at the leaders –
Bodexpress and Improbable have stalked the leader(s) – and Bodexpress moves
past Improbable.
#11 Laughing Fox –
may also be making a late charge, but I believe Owendale, Bodexpress and
Improbable can hold him off.
In the end – Bodexpress pulls off the victory, just
edging out Improbable and Owendale – with Warriors Charge fading but still
finishing 4th in front of War of Will and Anothertwistafate.
Closing Speed likes: Bodexpress,
Improbable, Owendale
If I’m betting $34 – this is what I like:
$2 Win - #3
$2 Win - #9
$1 Box Exacta – 4,5,9
$1 Box Trifecta – 4,5,7,9
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