Holy Bull Stakes 2013

GULFSTREAM PARK - January 26, 2013

Race 10 - 5:05 PM

Holy Bull S. (Grade III)

Purse - $400,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

Kentucky Derby Points:  Winner – 10 / Place – 4 / Show -  2 / Fourth - 1

1 – Shanghai Bobby

2 – Frac Daddy

3 – Clearly Now

4 – Bern Identity

5 – Sr. Quisqueyano

6 – Dewey Square

7 –Itsmyluckyday

8- Tulira Castle

9- Fredricksburg

10 – Joshua’s Compromise

As I contemplate the field of the Holy Bull Stakes I'm reminded of 2007 Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion War Pass.

One obvious reason I’m thinking of War Pass is that he sired #8 Tulira Castle – however the stronger reason he influences my writing is due to the early success of #1 Shanghai Bobby.

Take a peek at War Pass running in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in 2007 – Watch as he blazes the first quarter mile (in the mud) at 22 seconds….he “opens up” in the second turn leaving everyone else seven, eight, maybe nine lengths behind -- (the cameraman at times can't keep the remaining pack and War Pass in the same frame because he's so far ahead)….he absolutely FLEW in this race and he does all of this in the mud!

In his first five races he was undefeated (similar to Shanghai Bobby) – however War Pass hit a wall in the following spring – finished 7^th in the Tampa Bay Derby and 2^nd in the Wood Memorial….and he didn’t even run in the Kentucky Derby.

But when I saw War Pass as a two year old (especially this race) …. I really believed he was extraordinary and he would dominate the Triple Crown – (would have loved to see War Pass and Big Brown go at it, at least one time during their primes that season!)

#1 Shanghai Bobby  lines up in the Holy Bull as the undefeated Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Champion and the morning line 4/5 odds favorite.  There are many critics who believe that Shanghai Bobby won’t be able to handle the distance as the races continue to stretch him out – primarily because it’s not in his “breeding”.

As a racing enthusiast I say to hell with breeding – Shanghai Bobby appears to be a very special horse and I’m hopeful he continues his strong success….however we've seen so many brilliant two year olds turn into very average three year olds!

But beginning with the Holy Bull the road to the Triple Crown isn't going to be easy! He’s facing a very talented field this Saturday – in fact this may possibly be the best race we see until the first weekends of April.

***Incidentally Fusaichiswonderful has also won 5 races in 5 attempts and runs in the the Graded Filly Stakes two races before the Holy Bull in what is also a very competitive Forward Gal Stakes

#2 Frac Daddy lost only by a nose against Uncaptured in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club (and finishing ahead of #6 Dewey Square) – Frac Daddy only has three races (1 victory) on his resume – however he seems to be the kind of horse that could develop into a very good horse – very quickly! He’s coming off two months rest and he’s currently going of at 8/1 – He looks like a fighter to me….I don’t see him as any worse than 4^th in the Holy Bull

#3 Clearly Now – won his first two races at 6 furlongs apiece, and followed those races with a 3^rd place finish at 1 1/16^th miles against average talent – I think he’ll be outclassed here.

#4 Bern Identity – is one of the many talented horses who has previously lost to Shanghai Bobby (Hopeful Stakes). Bern Identity has displayed a lot of talent so far – and outside of his maiden race he’s only lost to two of the best three year olds running (Shanghai Bobby and Goldenscents). It’s understandable that he’s the second favorite at 4/1 – if over the past 70 days of rest he’s trained well and blossomed, he could certainly become a Kentucky Derby favorite with a trip to the winner’s circle here.

#5  Sr. Quisqueyano – has Placed twice behind # 7 Itsmyluckyday in their two outings. Sr. Quisqueyano has solid experience, having already raced 7 times in his young career – and scoring three victories and four places. I really like his consistency, however I see him at best finishing 3^rd in this one.

#6  Dewey Square has two victories out of three attempts, and he finished a solid third in the Kentucky Jockey Club. At 12-1 odds I think he’s a very dangerous horse – because two of his races have been at this distance. He doesn’t have a lot of experience – so a little more maturity could really benefit this horse…..I like his post position – he could surprise here – his sire is Bernardini.

#7 Itsmyluckyday – he’s going off at 6/1 and I wouldn’t be surprised if he became the second favorite in this race, primarily because of his name (it is a great name). However while he’s won 4 out of 8 attempts – he finished 6^th in the Delta Jackpot well behind 2^nd place finisher Bern Identity.  I love the name of this horse, but I believe he’ll be overbet come post time.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
worries that if he thinks he's
having a lucky day
his luck will change.

#8 Tulira Castle – son of War Pass and going off at 30/1 odds has two victories out of four attempts. He has never tackled this distance and unless his sire’s breeding kicks in this Saturday I don’t think he’ll contend for a victory.

#9 Fredricksburg – finished immediately behind Tulira Castle in their last outing.  He only has 1 victory in 5 attempts and I don’t think he should be sitting at 30-1 odds with Tulira Castle, but he is. I’ll be surprised if he finishes in the top 5 of this race.

#10 Joshua’s Compromise has a very impressive resume in that he has already raced 15 times in his very young career, which is nearly double the races of the next most experienced horse Itsmyluckyday. What isn’t too terribly impressive is that he only has 1 victory. Seems that his Ownership / Management is running this horse in everything – just hoping to rack up as much money as they can….and his earnings so far are about $115,000. It's frustrating to see this however  – as long as they aren’t hurting the horse….they are made to run….but I don’t think they’re going to win anything this Saturday.

I don’t like to play it safe and pick favorites – but this is just how I see it:

Closing Speed likes: 1,4,2

Now comes the betting side:

I did cash a winning ticket in the California Derby, however I’m still down about $6,

The problem with how I’m reading the Holy Bull is that I don’t see a “big” upset possibility here  - I think Frac Daddy, Shanghai Bobby and Bern Identity will take up at least two out of the top three spots. I think Dewey Square could squeeze into the top three – but I just don’t like the risk v. reward here.

So I’m going with a Pick 3 starting with Race 8 – the Filly Forward Gal Stakes.

Race 8 – 2,6

Race 9 – 1,2,3,7,10,12,13

Race 10 - 1

Pick = $14

Basically I’m taking two favorites in the Forward Gal Stakes a few long shots in Race 9, and finally Shanghai Bobby as the anchor to the Pick 3. Should be a great race day at Gulfstream this Saturday.

2013 California Derby

GOLDEN GATE - January 12, 2013

Race 4 - 2:18 PM

California Derby

Purse - $100,000

Distance - One And One Sixteenth Miles

1 – Will True Up

2 – Condiment

3 – Zeewat

4 – Wildcat Moon

5 – Tree of Life

6 – Butterfly Soul

7 –My Best Bet

When I began writing about Horse Racing I decided that I would likely begin each season with the California Derby (because Cali is my home) – and end my three year old write-ups with the West Virginia Derby….the state where I was born.

The California Derby doesn’t always attract the most talented horses – however there are two horses lining up at the starting gate this year that may deserve your attention – and they are the 6/5 morning line favorite #3  Zeewat and #5 Tree of Life.

#3 Zeewat – has been dominant with Russell Baze on board, having won three races (out of a career five). Two strikes against this horse is that he’ll carry the most weight (122) and this will be his first time stretching out to a mile and 1/16^th. However Zeewat has the highest earnings of the field and unless he comes out flat….or another horse surprises – I think Zeewat finishes in the top three without any surprise -- and also his good luck guy Baze will be aboard.

#5 Tree of Life is second in earnings  and showed promise in his early career – having won his first two races (both at 6 furlongs), however he’s followed that with a 10^th place finish and a 5^th place finish in a mile and 1/16^th and a mile. He returns to racing  after a 49 day rest ---- and he could be the kind of horse that returns from a rest and dominates the field….he could also finish 7^th?!?!

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tree of Life slipped into being the third favorite – and #2 Condiment switches places with him.

#2 Condiment – has only one victory in six races – however he has three recent races at 1 mile and he finished second in two of them. He has the inside track on both Zeewat and Tree of Life and with a little luck his opponents could come out flat and he could pull off a minor upset. Problem is…..I write that and then immediately remember : 1 victory in 6 races…..he’s also lost to Zeewat twice.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
thinks that the author making a
"Condiment" play on words
is a new low...

Like a well relished frankfurter  -- #1 Will True Up will have Condiment covering his outside……

Will True Up may have the best sire in Lawyer Ron (a challenger to Barbaro almost 10 years ago), however despite his excellent breeding – Will True Up has only 1 win in 4 attempts, and the victory was at 6 furlongs. I think at the right odds you might throw down some cash in hopes that his father’s talent arrives this Saturday…..but I would need 10/1….or more, I just don’t see anything on paper that makes me a believer.

#4 Wildcat Moon – has two career victories in seven – and both of those victories were in his last two races. He’s carrying 116 lbs. and while his victories have only been in 6 furlong races – I like that he’s coming into the race off of two consecutive victories. At 8/1 he’s got me thinking.

#6 Butterfly Soul – with horses like Butterfly Soul and Tree of Life, I can’t tell if I’m looking at horses or sitting at the Bodhi Tree Bookstore….(oh wait they closed that store….bummer)…..anyway I think this horse’s name is real groovy and I really dig that she’s a filly – I also really like that she’s currently the longshot at 15-1 and carrying the least weight – 114.

She has two career victories (out of five attempts) and both victories came under a mile. However she’s run in solid stakes races and while her best recent finish was 2^nd in a mile race – I like that her last three races were a mile or longer. At 15-1 she’s tempting.

And finally #7 My Best Bet who has won three races out of six….problem is he’s finished behind Zeewat and Condiment in two of those six races…..and you have to wonder what could help this horse’s luck. There’s a chance his outside post will help, and of course there’s a chance the other horses will misjudge the distance….but I think “my best bet” is not to put money on this horse winning this Saturday -- (which seeing how my confidence usually backfires...could make this horse your best bet...)

In closing Zeewat was absolutely stunning in the Gold Rush Stakes here at Golden Gates – he pulled away easily from the rest of the field and, without question, deserves to be the favorite.

I think having the inside slot and adding more distance will help Condiment….but unless the time off and training have seriously improved his closing abilities – I think a second place finish is (once again) very likely – however I think Wildcat Moon will steal the 2^nd place from him and Condiment will finish third.

Closing Speed likes: 3,4,2

Now comes the betting side:

Since I didn’t cash a winning ticket from my last blog – I’ll slow down the betting this week and only put $10 on the table.

$1 Exacta 3,4 with 2,3,4,6 ($6)

$4 Butterfly Soul to Win

Jerome Stakes 2013

AQUEDUCT - January 05, 2013

Jerome S.   (Grade II)

Race 8 - 3:48 PM

Purse - $200,000

Distance - One Mile And Seventy Yards

Siete De Oros

Vyjack

Long River

Amerigo Vespucci

Notacatbutallama

Mudflats

Vegas No Show

James Jingle

Hey there race fans – well it’s that time of year again when Closing Speed begins to take a look at Triple Crown contenders.

Three horses you’ll be hearing a lot about are Shanghai Bobby – who enters 2013 as the undefeated, Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion – who not only is undefeated – he’s beaten the best of the rest, including Goldencents who runs this weekend in the Santa Anita Sham Stakes.

While Shanghai Bobby has done nothing but Win (and Win in big races) – many believe his breeding will leave him wanting as the distances become longer in three year stakes races. However he’s going to stay on my radar until I see that he can no longer compete --- because right now he's the best there is!

Another horse I’m keeping an eye on is Whiskey Romeo – he stumbled horribly in his last race and still managed to win convincingly – he may not be Championship Caliber, but those who have read my blog in the past know that I love a horse with heart!

Before we delve into the Jerome Stakes – I would have written about the Sham Stakes in Santa Anita, but I don’t believe it’s going to be as competitive or as difficult to handicap as the Jerome Stakes are.

I see Goldenscents winning with conviction this Saturday.

We start with Siete De Oros --- which for those who don’t know means Seven of Pentacles in Spanish – which is in reference to the Seven of Pentacles Tarot Card – here is a description of the card:

The Seven of Pentacles shows that you have a strong desire to invest in those things that will provide long-term benefit. You understand the value of putting in time and energy now for longer-term rewards, and you are not necessarily looking for ‘quick wins’ as such

Well luckily the owners aren't looking for quick wins – #1 Siete De Oros is going off at 20/1 and while he’s won two out of four races – I think he’ll struggle to compete here.

In contrast, Vyjack #2  has won his first two races and enters the Jerome Stakes as the favorite at 2/1 – I sense the locals know what they’re talking about – but with only two races under his bridle and stretching out another furlong and 70 yards….I’m not convinced Vyjack should be at 2-1.

#3 Long River enters the race as the second favorite (5/2) and it wouldn't surprise me if he becomes the favorite when the gates open. He’s fresh off of a win at this distance and he seems to be building a little momentum – tough not to like a young horse on the upswing.

Incidentally the next horse was named after an explorer who had someone pay him to explore Brazil – making him a kind of a personal hero of mine!

#4 Amerigo Vespucci – finished 2^nd in his last race behind Whiskey Romeo.  He has won two out four career races and I believe he’s a horse that will compete in a number of races moving forward – but I don’t believe he’ll end up exploring the winner’s circle that much.

#5 Notacatbutallama intrigues me….not because I can’t imagine being confused about a Llama looking like a cat – but because he’s currently going off at 12/1 and I think he offers a few variables that could give him a shot at a profitable upset! Notacatbutallama will be running in his eighth race this Saturday which (by today’s standards) is certainly quite a resume for a three year old racing in January – granted most of these races have been on the Turf, and he’s only recently switched to dirt.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah has nothing
against Llama's, but he doesn't want
to be confused as being one.

His past four races all a mile or more have been a Place, Win, Win and a Place – the favorites are all fairly inexperienced (which isn't unusual at this age)….as this will be their 3^rd or 4^th race --- and I believe with his solid post and his experience Notacatbutallama is certainly worth a visit to the bettors booth.

#6 Mudflats – is going off at 3/1 – and while his last race was a victory in a 7 furlong race here at Aqueduct, I don’t like that he doesn't have any experience in a mile or beyond – and I see him more at about 6/1 than his current odds. Again the locals may know something here.

#7 Vegas No Show finished a dismal 9^th in his last outing the Remsen Stakes – however he’s raced against the best young horses in the country so far (including Shanghai Bobby, Violence, Overanalyze, and Normandy Invasion) – this could be a situation where he’s more competitive against a less talented field.

And finally #8 James Jingle, who has a very jolly name but he has the lowest winning percentage (17%) of the field having won 1 race out of 6….and I think he’ll struggle to crack the top three in this race.

Closing Speed likes Long River, Notacatbutallama, and Vyjack

If I'm betting on this race I like

$1 Trifecta (Box) 2,3,5 = $6

$2 Exacta - 5 with 2,3,4 = $6

$1 Exacta - 2,3 with 4,5 = $4

I think I'll start my year off slowly with a $16 bet and let's see where the season takes us.

Belmont Stakes 2012

Belmont Stakes

Saturday June 9th @ 6:30 pm EST

Since 2002 there have been four horses:

War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004) and Big Brown (2009) who successfully accomplished winning the first two gems of the American Triple Crown (The Kentucky Derby and Preakness), but for various reasons failed to win the Belmont Stakes.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah
does not like waking up to
bad news!

This morning (Friday) when I woke up I discovered that I’ll Have Another will join this pack of “close but no Secretariat” group of horses, due to a swollen tendon…..perhaps even more disappointing is that management not only announced he was scratched from the Belmont Stakes, but that he’s also retiring.

Despite not running for the Triple Crown, I would have loved seeing this horse in the Breeder’s Cup Classic....but such is the economic and injury realities of horse racing.

History Challenged?? Horse of Legend??
I might be watching too much Spartacus.

Whatever word means less than devastated, but more than “just” disappointed – is how I and many racing enthusiasts feel right now.

For the past few weeks we had been gearing up to see history challenged and perhaps a horse of destiny become one of legend…..now what we have left is a very old, rich in tradition and purse, New York stakes race--- we call the Belmont Stakes.

Despite having a few very good horses in this race (which isn’t always the case for the Belmont Stakes), this race will serve as very little consolation for what many of us had hoped to see.

Even if I’ll Have Another was beaten on the track…..it still would have been "in the arena"  “on the track”.

But enough whining let’s take a look at the horses that will run this Saturday.

In my opinion the only way that these long shots could win is if the favored horses push themselves too hard coming out of the final turn and are absolutely fatigued with a 100 or 200 yards still to go. It’s possible but I don’t see a long shot worth the money in this group:

#2  - Unstoppable U (20-1) – recently won an allowance race in Belmont.
#4 – Atigun (15-1),
#6 - Ravelo’s Boy (30-1),
#7 - Five Sixteen (30-1),
#8 - Guyana Star Dweej (30-1), --- Jockey Kent Desormeaux won the Belmont in 2009.
#10 - Optimizer (15-1), --- hasn't won a race since August 2011
#12 - My Adonis (15-1)

#1 Street Life (8-1) is an interesting prospect because he appears to like longer races, and I could see him being very dangerous if the more favored horses wear each other down too early. I think he’s got a lot of potential, and although he’ll need luck in the Belmont….I think he could certainly pull off an upset.

#3 Union Rags (3-1) The Breeder’s Cup Classic, the Florida Derby, the Kentucky Derby were all races this horse should have won….or at least one or two of these races, instead he’s progressively finished worse in each one. I can’t tell if Union Rags has just had some bad luck or if he simply isn’t as good a horse as many thought? He could be the most talented horse in the field who just needs a clear run to win his first major race (or at least his first major in awhile). Union Rags will be ridden by J. Velazquez  who won the Belmont in 2007 on the highly underrated Filly Rags to Riches.

#5 Dullahan (9-5) He was narrowly beaten in the Kentucky Derby --- and it appears that more distance will help him, which are all the right reasons for him being the favorite. My fear is that either he, Union Rags, or Paynter will hit the panic button too early in the Belmont and it will send any of them into a ferocious fight for a few hundred yards….however it will be too soon and they’ll fade as either a long shot or Street Life sail by them.

#9 Paynter (7-2) – Paynter may attempt to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him lead the field coming out of the final turn. That aside I think there are more talented horses in this field and I think his best finish would be possibly 2nd place….but more like 3^rd or 4th. Mike Smith will be aboard and he won the Belmont in 2010 on Drosselmeyer.

Personally I’m rooting for Union Rags and Street Life.

With Union Rags – I just think he’s a much better horse than his record indicates, and that he's just had a string of bad luck. I’d enjoy watching him take home a major stakes race…..and after some rest he could return to some late summer racing and maybe make a go at the Breeder’s Cup Classic.

Despite Street Life’s championship breeding he’s a bit of an underdog – and I think he could develop down the road into a very capable horse. He’ll be competing in the race his sire Street Sense decided to skip.

Closing Speed likes: Union Rags / Dullahan / Street Life

If I were going to bet $22 this is how I’d do it.

$10 – Street Life to win (as long as his odds don’t dip below 5-1). I might switch that bet to Union Rags or Paynter if the odds on either of those horses rises above 5-1.

$12 Trifecta – 3,5 with 1,3,5,9, with 1,3,5,9

I’m not crazy about the potential payout with the Trifecta --- and My Adonis could certainly sneak into the top three….but I’m kind of too depressed about the Triple Crown to think about betting.

In closing here's to I'll Have Another --- a Champion of a horse, who gave fans a lot to cheer for! Here's hoping for a speedy recovery and success in providing us with more champions in the future!

Preakness 2012

Preakness  2012

As a racing enthusiast it is my opinion that to win the Kentucky Derby – luck is more of a factor than skill, but the winner of the Preakness is usually the more talented and skillful horse.

The two differences that change the balance of luck and skill in these two races – is the shorter distance in the Preakness, which is slightly closer to the races these horses prepped with.

And perhaps a more important difference is a smaller field of horses to run against. The Kentucky Derby usually hosts 20 horses, while the Preakness will line up nearly half that amount with 11. With fewer horses in the field – there’s less of a chance that a bad post position ends your chances for victory before the gate even opens. There's also fewer horses clogging up lanes that could be used by horses capable of closing out a race.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah wishes his
agent would get him featured on
a blog that picks winning horses?

He also wishes his agent wasn't imaginary.

(I will add that this opinion is probably biased due to the amount of wrong betting choices I’ve made in the past several KY Derbies – but I still believe the most talented three year old usually prevails in 
the Preakness).

With that in mind, two things surprised me as we approached the 2012 Preakness – the first was that a number of the more talented horses are bowing out this Saturday.

I thought that Gemologist, Hansen, Dullahan and Union Rags all had a very solid shot at contending in this race.

Gemologist and Hansen got swallowed up early in the Kentucky Derby Traffic and never found a way to break free. Dullahan managed to find a lane late through the heavy traffic and was closing with intention – but fell shot, and Union Rags ( the horse I believe may have the most talent of any three year old) has just hit an unlucky streak in his last two races.

From what I’m reading we’ll see Dullahan and Union Rags return in the Belmont Stakes --- which is also a little unusual, because many times the more talented horses skip the Belmont (if they're not up for a Triple Crown) due to how strenuous the distance is.

The next surprise was the rivaling viewpoints of the fans of both Kentucky Derby winner #9 I’ll Have Another and the 2^nd place early speedster #7 Bodemeister.

In Bodemeister’s corner you have a group claiming that his blistering early ½ mile (45 seconds) cost him the race down the stretch. With only 100 yards left in the KY Derby he was still the leader, and since the Preakness is more than a 100 yards shorter  --- there’s no question why he’s the favorite to win -- in fact I’ve read where people have stated that I’ll Have Another didn’t win the Derby, as much as Bodemeister lost it.

I pity the fool who says
 I'll Have Another just got lucky!

Of course – fans of I’ll Have Another find that disrespectful – and claim that come this Saturday the Kentucky Derby champ is going to run the same race….only a 100 yards earlier! Which will still leave Bodemeister as some Triple Crown chump --- crying to his mama!

I might be getting a little wrapped up in the smack talk…. ----->>

Before I break down my picks here’s a snapshot of the other horses.


I will say this about the following three horses , they haven’t raced since early April so they are coming in fresher than the horses returning after only two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby.

#1 – Tiger Walk – hasn’t won since Dec. 2011 – he also hasn’t looked like much of a contender against the bigger names this year. I assume his ownership likes Baltimore Crab Cakes or is a big fan of The Wire and just wanted to see the scenery - because I really don't think there's any other reason to run this horse this Saturday.

Senator Davis do you think
Tiger Walk will win?

#2 – Teeth of the Dog – I like this horse, but I believe he’s outclassed here. If fatigue is a factor for a few of the better horses I think he could crack the top 3, but I think he needs a lot of help.

#4 – Zetterhorn -  He’s won three in a row, but he’s never raced over a mile 1/16. His approach is to arrive late to the party, so if fatigue is a factor for the KY Derby horses – he could be the long shot to watch. But does he have a mile 3/16ths in him?

#3 – Pretension – Two weeks ago he won a race here at Pimlico, so I like his experience and his results at this track. Pretension could push Bodemeister in the early outing….but I believe he’s outclassed here as well and doesn’t have the benefit of having been rested for a month.

#5 Went the Day Well and #6 Creative Cause are currently going off at 6-1 odds and I think both of these horses are capable of a victory at the Preakness.

Went the Day Well – struggled with the KY Derby traffic but gave a very respectable late effort to finish fourth. With less traffic in this race he becomes a lot more dangerous.

In the Santa Anita Derby Creative Cause lost by only a nose to KY Derby Champion I’ll Have Another. A month earlier he defeated Bodemeister at Santa Anita – and he finished third last year in the Breeder’s Cup behind Hansen and Union Rags (both taking a break from the Preakness).
In my opinion, Creative Cause seems to lack a killer instinct --- some horses seem to “enjoy” winning and find ways of closing in the clutch….and I haven’t seen that so far out of Creative Cause – however he also strikes me as a very talented horse who is just prime to put all of the pieces together….similar perhaps to the 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer – more so in racing attitude than in style or talent.  Come this Saturday we may be calling him Creative Comeback?

#8 Daddy Nose Best – The Preakness will be Daddy’s 11^th race in just under a year – by comparison I’ll Have Another will be racing his 7^th time this Saturday. He’s never beaten a top tier horse and my guess is fatigue is going to be a bigger factor for Daddy Nose Best than most. If this horse wins – I guess you’d have to chalk it up to him being the most talented horse familiar with running on such short notice. But I think it’s far more likely this horse comes out flat (more like exhausted) and finishes south of 6^th or 7^th place.

#10 Optimizer – very similar to Daddy Knows Best  - enters his 11^th race and hasn’t won since August 2011.

#11 Cozzetti – likes to close late and in his last race he finished 4^th behind Bodemeister in the Arkansas Derby. He has had some good workouts, but I think he’s going to need the top four horses in this race to come out flat – for him to challenge….and that seems unlikely. He could possibly steal a third or fourth place finish – but I think middle of the pack is where he'll finish.

That leaves us with Bodemeister vs. I’ll Have Another.

#7 Bodemeister has a fantastic post position, and he’ll look to go wire to wire in this race. Most likely his management and jockey would like to see a slightly slower first half mile so that he can close out the race with a little more strength. If the Kentucky Derby would have been 100 yards less Bodemeister would have been victorious in his last race.....and the Preakness is about 100 yards less than the Kentucky Derby.

I'm thinking the Red Sea reference might be
a little too big of a stretch for this description?

#9 I’ll Have Another – few horses succeed in the Kentucky Derby from the 15^th post position and beyond. I’ll Have Another broke strongly from the 19^th spot and moved to the top third of the field when suddenly - like a mini parting of the red sea miracle - the field broke up perfectly, providing him with a rare (and sweet) spot just off the rail and only about seven horses behind of what was too hot of a pace anyway!

He went four wide in the final turn (which was a gift, because horses have gone 12 wide or more before) and then he closed the race out like a Champ. Make no mistake – I think this horse does have a killer instinct, and he strikes me as a fighter.

So here’s the question in the 2012 Preakness –

Did the strategy to let Bodemeister fly in the early part of the Kentucky Derby only fail because one horse got lucky??

Or

With lesser horses to impede him and less need for luck – will I’ll Have Another define himself as the horse on a mission – dare I ask is destiny calling?? Is his name really stating that he’ll just have another victory?? He’s won three straight and hasn’t lost a race under a mile.

You should know that as a racing enthusiast I’d love to see a Triple Crown….however –

Closing Speed likes: Bodemeister, Creative Cause, I’ll Have Another

And here’s how I’d bet $20

$2 Exacta – 7,9 with 2,4,5,6 = $8

In many cases a split will happen between the favorites, but this race does remind me a lot of the Curlin v. Street Sense Preakness and they finished 1^st and 2^nd.

$2 Win – Teeth of the Dog ---- as long as he’s 15-1 or higher
$2 Win – Zetterholm ---- as long as he’s 15-1 or higher

$4 Win on – Went the Day Well and Creative Cause, or $8 to win on only one of these horses  --- as long as they stay 6-1 or higher.

Kentucky Derby 2012 - All bets are in!

Kentucky Derby 2012 – Part IV

In my last entry I wrote about the “long-shots” today I’m going to focus on eight of the more “favored” horses. However if you just want to skip to my picks those will be at the bottom.

I think we’re in for a very special Kentucky Derby this year for the exceptional reason that we haven’t seen the winner of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile entered in the Kentucky Derby for the past five years – (Street Sense 2006-2007), in fact most horses who ran competitively in the past few Breeder’s Cup Juveniles didn’t even make it to the KY Derby – And for the 2012 Kentucky Derby we have the top five horses in a rematch – for horse racing it doesn’t get much better than this!

If you go back to Nov. 5 2011 – Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – here at Churchill Downs - this is how they finished:

1^st  - Hansen
2^nd – Union Rags
3^rd – Creative Cause
4^th – Dullahan
5^th – Take Charge Indy

These horses are of course among the favorites – and here are the likely top eight horses come post time!

Both (currently) at 12-1 odds the top two horses out of California’s Santa Anita Derby, (2^nd place) #8 Creative Cause & (Winner) #19 I’ll Have Another, are two horses I’m automatically scratching out as finishing well in this year’s KY Derby.

#8 Creative Cause has talent and a fantastic post position, but in my opinion he simply lacks a killer instinct. Additionally California prepped horses have simply failed to be much of a factor (over the past few years) come Triple Crown time. I don’t think Creative Cause has anything better than a 4^th place finish in him.

#19 – I’ll Have Another – Better killer instinct, similar California prep, horrible post for this horse!!  I believe he’ll either go for the early lead – and in doing so spend so much energy going wide, he fades late or he runs counter to what got him here and finds he can’t close as well as a number of other horses.

I believe I'll Have Another needs the early lead and with these two options he’s not going to get it. Either way I think I’ll Have Another finishes middle of the pack (10^th) or worse. I believe the odds on this horse should be closer to 20-1 / 30-1.

Speaking of early lead – I mentioned #3 Take Charge Indy in my entry yesterday as a longshot (15-1 current odds). However with the recent KY Derby success of his jockey Calvin Borel, and a great post for this early speedster – I won’t be surprised if Take Charge Indy becomes a 12-1 or as low as 8-1 horse for this race. 

Take Charge Indy will need to break out of the gate like a cannonball and keep Bodemeister and Hansen from completely overtaking him and pinning him behind them and into the rail. However if Borel gets this horse near the lead and a clear shot at the wire in the final stretch – he could make things very interesting! At 15-1 – I believe he’s a little under bet right now.

If only Hansen could self promote!!

Speaking of under bet --- current odds have #14 Hansen at 10-1, which in my opinion is a little disrespectful , because the last time Twin Spires gave him 10-1 odds he won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – what no love for the Champ?!?

Their thinking may be that Hansen is perhaps the best mile 1/16^th horse on the track – problem is the Kentucky Derby is a mile and a quarter!  His two biggest victories (Breeder’s Cup Juvenile & Gotham Stakes) were both at 1 1/16^th – his most recent second place finish (to Dullahan) in the Blue Grass Stakes was at 1 1/8^th.

Coming out of the 14^th spot Hansen will most likely challenge the early leaders.  And as they hit the final turn, he’ll begin to pass any lesser horses who enjoyed an early spotlight but have no will to finish (Trinniberg, maybe Take Charge Indy).  

And my guess is at 1 1/16 th – he and perhaps Union Rags and Bodemeister will be dueling it out….the question is what happens to these three horses in the next 3/16^th of a mile?

Will Hansen find his endurance in May and follow the exact path of  Street Sense in 2007 (Street Sense also finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes before his Kentucky Derby Victory). At 10-1 odds this horse could be a steal!

My father always said you don't get to disrespect the Champ, until you've beaten him....which brings us to ---

You took my Pride, my Dignity & my Money
Mine That Bird!!

#5 Dullahan – (half brother, to my nemesis Mine That Bird) – enjoyed a late rally and victory over Hansen in the Blue Grass Stakes, so he’s proven he can handle additional distance. His style of racing is to hang back and rally late – so the early lead is of no consequence to him. His post position is great and at 8-1 he’s got some good looking odds. This is the horse who could fly by the early leaders in the last furlong and be the “Where did he come from horse”…..I like this horse to challenge for the top three spots I just think they’ll be too much traffic for him to win this Saturday.

#6 Bodemeister  (currently the favorite at 4-1) – this horse potentially has “everything”. He has a fantastic post postion, he has the ability to grab the early lead,  which would help him avoid getting caught up in traffic in the final turn  – and in the Arkansas Derby he not only handled the distance – he picked up steam and exploded down the stretch --- there wasn’t even a horse close to him when he hit the wire.

Strangely Sensitve Cheetah wishes
we'd change the topic of
premature.

The problem is….it was really just “one” race. He’s only had two wins out of four races – and his inexperience could be a factor.  My biggest concerns for Bodemeister is that if one of the early speeders sets an impossible pace (anything under 23 seconds, certainly anything under 22 seconds, in the first ¼ mile) Bodemeister could fight too hard to keep up, and have nothing in the tank late -- i.e. get lost in a speed trap, or be premature.


***Yeah I was going to have a Giraffe Mascot and I still may, but this Cheetah cracks me up -- you can post below if he's a keeper or not?

#15 Gemologist (currently going off at 6-1) enters the KY Derby undefeated in six races, and with two of his victories here at Churchill Downs. Three of his victories were over solid distances and really this horse has done everything to properly prepare for the biggest race of his life.  His only two negatives are he doesn’t have the best post for this race (#15) and he “really” hasn’t beaten anyone.  His biggest victory was his most recent in the Wood Memorial over (#11) Alpha – and Alpha didn’t have a great trip and only lost by a nose!

If the early pace wears out the early leaders and Gemologist positions himself well coming out of the final turn – I think he could finish in the top three – however I believe Gemologist will finish between 4^th to 8^th place when it’s all said and done.

The Rags in Union Rags is a
reference to dixieland music

And finally we come to perhaps the most talented prospect in the field #4 Union Rags. Out of six career races Union Rags has two losses --- the problem is those losses were in the biggest races of his life

(Finishing 2^nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and finishing a driving 3^rd in the Florida Derby). 

This begs the questions –

Was the Breeder’s Cup loss just due to youth, and inexperience? Was the Florida Derby loss just due to a little bad positioning that kept him from closing that race out?

I’ve seen Triple Crown contenders just come out flat and uninspired in prep races before – but I don’t think that’s the case with Union Rags in the Florida Derby. I believe the way that race played out didn’t offer him a chance to win it. He got held up in traffic and just didn’t have enough ground to overtake the two leaders in that race – however his driving rally made me believe he just needed another 100 yards or so…..and he’ll have that 100 yards or so at Churchill this Saturday.

Or does this horse have a knack for not being able to win the big races – for whatever reason?? Good and bad luck is a strange phenomenon in sports - but you know it when you see it.

Union Rags will have a solid post with the #4 spot – he’ll run with the bulk of the pack behind the leaders and then he’ll need to find an open lane away from traffic coming out of the final turn. Without question I think he has the skill to finish in the top 3 – but he’ll need some good luck (which has been elusive for him so far) to pull out a victory.

In closing I believe (if the weather holds up) we’re in for one of two finishes.

1 – Bodemeister takes the early lead, explodes in the final stretch and wins by a few lengths over a hard closing Dullahan and/or Union Rags. Bodemeister looks dominant but his challengers look poised for round 2 in the Preakness. And in my opinion the Preakness is where we find out who really is the best three year old in the country.

Hold your tickets!

2 – It ends being the closest KY Derby we’ve seen in years (perhaps ever) – with as many as five horses contending for victory at the wire. It ends being a HOLD ALL TICKETS – millions of dollars hanging in the balance over a photo finish....that will seemingly last forever.

As a racing fan – I’m rooting for Bodemeister – if he can build on his Arkansas Derby victory – then he could be a “monster” talent. I would also enjoy watching Hansen bounce back and pull out another big Churchill Downs victory.

As a fan I’m being boring: 
Closing Speed likes: Bodemeister / Union Rags / Dullahan

However as a bettor – you’re looking for great odds – so here’s how I’d bet $20.

$ 4 – Take Charge Indy to win

$ 2 – Done Talking to win
$ 2 – Alpha  to win

$6 Exacta box – Dullahan / Union Rags / Alpha

$6 Exacta box – Union Rags / Take Charge Indy / Hansen

**If Union Rags ends up being the favorite, I would probably substitute him for  Bodemeister in the Exactas.

Kentucky Derby Part III - Looking at Longshots!

Kentucky Derby 2012 – Part III
Looking at Longshots

Because of the depth of talent in this year’s Kentucky Derby – I believe a Longshot “upset” is less likely than it has been in the past few years.  I believe this year’s KY Derby resembles the 2007 Kentucky Derby where the spring’s best horses rose to the occasion (Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin).

However because of:

Ø  The number of horses running (20)

Ø  The unique distance – which will be new to all of these horses
Ø  And the fact that any of these horse could “blossom” at just the right time

A long shot win certainly isn’t out of the question – so here is my break down on the longshots – with a little help from my “new” sidekick Longshot Larry the Giraffe and his loveable friends!

#1 - Daddy Long Legs (30-1) – I’ll pass – this horse has drawn a very difficult post, he’s had to travel half way around the world, and I just don’t see him pulling out a victory here. I think he’s going to get pinned to the rail and never be heard from again.

#2 – Optimizer (50-1) – I’ll pass – From what I’m seeing this horse is going in the wrong direction (i.e. he’s not getting better). Love the odds, like the post position – but I don’t think this horse is ready.

#3 – Take Charge Indy (15-1) – Worth a bet – Two Words: Calvin Borel!! If Take Charge Indy breaks out of the gate well and owns the rail and the early lead, I believe this horse has a fighting chance, especially with a jockey who has won a number of recent Kentucky Derbies. He’ll need a healthy lead coming out of the final turn, and he’ll need all kinds of traffic issues for the more talented horses – and both are very real possibilities. I’m guessing at post time this horse could be going off at closer to 8-1, which is still “okay”….but if his odds exceed (20-1)  he’s definitely worth a bet.

 

"Grumpy the Gorilla" does not like
that Rousing Sermon got a great post!

#7 – Rousing Sermon (50-1) – I’ll pass – great post position, decent talent, but the Louisiana prepped horses haven’t shown me much this year. Sadly Sermon is the kind of horse who will just get in the way for this race and end up being a factor – in a bad way.

RESPECT?!? Did he just say
RESPECT?!?!

#9 – Trinniberg (50-1) – Worth a bet – I may have just lost the respect of a few more serious horse people with this call – but I think Trinniberg has a great opening spot, he can run with the early leaders , and while he hasn’t been tested for anything beyond a mile……there’s an outside hope that he may do very well with the distance. If he falls below 20-1 forget it, but at 50-1 and odds that could go beyond 100-1, I believe he’s worth a $2 bet. What’s likely is that he’ll be a part of the early runners and fade well before the final turn – but his odds may be too much fun to ignore. I'm also fully aware that this horse could finish dead last.

#10 – Daddy Nose Best (15-1) – I’ll pass – I like his post, I like his talent – but I’d need (40-1) or better before I’d bet on Daddy Nose Best.  I think 30-1 is a fair price for this horse, and we’re not there yet.

#11 – Alpha (15-1) – Worth a bet – Very fair price on this horse, very solid post position – what I like most about this horse is that in his last race (Wood Memorial) he had to pull up in the first turn and he still managed to fight Gemologist (6-1 – aka twice the odds??)  to the wire. Being pulled up in that race is just a little bad luck, and he may be getting overlooked because of it. He’ll need to find an open lane late in the Kentucky Derby – but I think he can finish without fading – and if the pace early is too fast he may be the horse with enough energy to close.

#12 – Prospective (30-1) – I’ll pass –  In the past he’s come up short against a number of these horses (13^th) in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, (6^th) in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Strangely Sensitive Cheetah wishes he had
bet on Animal Kingdom last year....

#13 – Went the Day Well (20-1) – Consider yourself warned  (But I’ll pass) – This horse has the same connections as Animal Kingdom (last year’s Kentucky Derby Winner). He’s won his last two races but he remains a bit of a mystery because he hasn’t raced in the more prominent prep races. A number of betting “experts” like him….but all I can leave you with is – consider yourself warned.

With the exception of Done Talking I’m calling the #16 post and beyond the El Padrino Line – Outside of this line the amount of luck needed is too great and the amount of talent too little.

Although I can actually hear my father asking “How can you NOT bet on El Padrino on Cinco De Mayo?!?!!” I’ll pass.

#16 – El Padrino (20-1)
#18 – Sabercat (30-1)
#20 – Liaison (50-1)

#17 – Done Talking (50-1) – Worth a bet – Sure he’s beyond the “El Padrino Line” – however Done Talking successfully won the Illinois Derby by hanging back and closing late. If the favorites fade, a horse like Done Talking could be there for the upset. Keep in mind Illinois Derby winners haven’t been known to be very competitive in the past – however at 50-1 or higher – I think he’s worth a bet.

In my next post I'll cover the more favored horses in this year's Kentucky Derby.....and who knows maybe Longshot Larry and his friends will join us.....he's a Giraffe, because he has a "long" neck....aka Long shot??? Besides Giraffes don't get a lot of love in the Mascot area!